Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Paris FC		Lorient

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.5
	1.75	3.9	4.4
	1.79	3.95	4.75
	1.21	5.99	13.80	Watch
	1.79	4.13	4.69	Watch
	1.77	3.85	4.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.93)	4.22 ↑ (3.78)	5.91 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
59.4%

Draw
23.7%

Lorient
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.2%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

23.4%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paris FC's performance.

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorient might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paris FC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorient could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	19.6%	6.5%

Paris FC - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Paris FC will win (votes: 33 - 73.3%). Lorient will win (votes: 3 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paris FC: 60.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Lorient (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

EH -1 - Lorient (10.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris FC will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Paris FC (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Lorient (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nkambadio O. (G) 14. Traore H. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 28. De Smet T. 33. Lees-Melou P. 21. Lopez M. (C) 17. Camara A. 10. Kebbal I. 11. Krasso J. 27. Simon M.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 25. Faye A. 11. Le Bris T. 62. Avom A. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 9. Bamba M.
Substitutes
13. Cafaro M. 31. Chergui S. 12. Dicko N. 9. Geubbels W. 93. Ikone J. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 20. Lopez J. 19. Sangui N. 35. Trapp K. (G)	8. Cadiou N. 12. Dieng B. 2. Igor Silva 21. Kamara B. (G) 19. Monnier I. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A. 44. Yongwa D.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Kebbal I. ⚽, Krasso J. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Krasso J. ⚽, Simon M. (A),
45+1', Kouassi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Faye A. 🟨,
60', Pagis P. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
60', Bamba M. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
68', Krasso J. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
68', Traore H. ↓, Chergui S. ↑,
68', Camara A. ↓, Geubbels W. ↑,
77', Makengo J. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
77', Kouassi A. ↓, Yongwa D. ↑,
79', Faye A. ↓, Dieng B. ↑,
85', Simon M. ↓, Sangui N. ↑,
90+2', Kebbal I. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Paris FC is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Paris FC: Doucet L. (Inactive) Hamel P. (Hamstring Injury) Marchetti V. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Nice - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Paris FC - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
14.09.25	Brest - Paris FC	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Paris FC - Metz	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TLWWL
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Lorient - Monaco	3:1 ✺
21.09.25	Le Havre - Lorient	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0 ✺
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7 ✺
24.08.25	Lorient - Rennes	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
08.03.25	Paris FC - Lorient	3:2
14.12.24	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0
Coupe De France
09.02.21	Lorient - Paris FC	2:1
French Ligue 2
29.07.19	Lorient - Paris FC	3:0
15.04.19	Paris FC - Lorient	2:2
09.11.18	Lorient - Paris FC	2:1
06.04.18	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0

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