Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 18

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Parc des Princes (Paris)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Paris Saint-Germain		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.27	6.25	9	Watch
	1.27	5.9	10.5	Watch
	1.3	6.36	9.68	Watch
	1.25	5.5	9.5
	1.3	6.52	9.39	Watch
	1.28	6	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.43)	6.09 ↑ (4.84)	9.6 ↑ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
74.4%

Draw
15.6%

Lille
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66%

19.5%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.3%

18.6%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paris Saint-Germain's performance.

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paris Saint-Germain that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.3%	12.1%	7.6%

Paris Saint Germain - Lille Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - PSG (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (52 of 65 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.28% – 89.72%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 28 - 90.3%). Lille (votes: 1 - 3.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Chevalier L. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 24. Mayulu S. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 14. Doue D.	1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 17. Mukau N. 6. Bentaleb N. 8. Mbappe E. 10. Haraldsson H. 32. Bouaddi A. 9. Giroud O. (C)
Substitutes
29. Barcola B. 4. Beraldo L. 21. Hernandez L. 60. James M. (G) 89. Marin R. (G) 45. Nsoki N. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.	4. Alexsandro 16. Bodart A. (G) 14. Broholm M. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 38. Goffi A. 18. Mbemba Ch. 12. Meunier T. 11. Sahraoui O.
Coaches
Luis Enrique	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Dembele O. ⚽, Vitinha (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mayulu S. ↓, Zabarnyi I. ↑,
62', Haraldsson H. 🟨,
63', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Dembele O. ⚽, Doue D. (A),
76', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
77', Giroud O. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
77', Mbappe E. ↓, Broholm M. ↑,
77', Mukau N. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
84', Doue D. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
87', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
90', Haraldsson H. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 0, Barcola B. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 3.

PSG is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Lille has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

PSG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, PSG has had a series of home games.

In this match, PSG is the clear favorite.

There will not play in PSG: Hakimi A. (International duty) Lee Kang-In (Thigh Injury) Mbaye I. (International duty) Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury) Neves J. (Muscle Injury) Safonov M. (Broken Hand)

There will not play in Lille: Andre B. (Injury) Fernandez-Pardo M. (Inactive) Igamane H. (International duty) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

We predict that PSG will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, PSG won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 48:21. (average 2.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, PSG won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 25:10. (average 2.5:1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

PSG: 70.71% Lille: 4.48%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
6	PSG	5	2	2	1	8:7	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Paris Saint-Germain - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 66.03%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
Coupe De France
12.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Fontenay - Paris Saint-Germain	0:4 ✺
FIFA Intercontinental Cup
17.12.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Flamengo	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWWW
- OSC Lille
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Lille - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Lille - Rennes	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Lusitanos Saint-Maur - Lille	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Auxerre - Lille	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Young Boys - Lille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
05.10.25	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1
01.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	4:1
01.09.24	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3
10.02.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:1
17.12.23	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1
19.02.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	4:3
21.08.22	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:7

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