Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 23

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Patronato Parana		Quilmes

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.82	3.4
	2.40	2.80	3.00
	2.35	2.82	3.25
	2.39	2.84	3.66
	2.4	2.86	3.35	Watch
	2.35	2.8	3.35
	2.36	2.86	3.38	Watch
	2.32	2.8	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.51)	2.83 ↑ (2.76)	3.33 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
39.3%

Draw
32.8%

Quilmes
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

33.8%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

33.2%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

Patronato Parana - Quilmes Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Patronato will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Quilmes will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa A. (C) 4. Rueda W. 2. Diaz G. 6. Moreyra F. 3. Evangelista F. 8. Miro A. 5. Bravo F. 10. Barinaga J. P. 11. Pereyra V. L. 7. Soldano F. 9. Diaz D.	1. Marinelli G. (G) 4. Vallejos M. 2. Romeo L. 6. Kippes A. (C) 3. Bindella A. 5. Bolivar A. 7. Martinez R. 8. Vega G. 10. Batista A. 11. Vera U. 9. Spetale A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Romeo L. (Own goal),
11', 2 - 0, Pereyra V. L. ⚽,
14', 2 - 1, Spetale A. ⚽, Vallejos M. (A),
24', 3 - 1, Rueda W. ⚽,
34', Soldano F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Evangelista F. ↓, Genez N. ↑,
46', Vallejos M. ↓, Ortega A. ↑,
47', Moreyra F. 🟨,
48', 3 - 2, Kippes A. ⚽, Vera U. (A),
52', Rueda W. 🟨,
58', Spetale A. ↓, Bonacci P. ↑,
58', Vega G. ↓, Lavezzi A. ↑,
62', Bravo F. 🟨,
63', Pereyra V. L. 🟨,
64', Diaz D. ↓, Diaz F. N. ↑,
65', Diaz G. 🟨,
74', Ortega A. 🟨,
75', 3 - 3, Lavezzi A. ⚽, Martinez R. (A),
77', Bindella A. 🟨,
78', Bindella A. ↓, Yangali J. ↑,
80', Barinaga J. P. ↓, Salega G. ↑,
80', Soldano F. ↓, Rivero H. ↑,
84', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Heredia F. ↑,
85', Martinez R. ↓, Yangali J. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Patronato won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Patronato could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Patronato won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:12. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Patronato won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Patronato Parana - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 37.16%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.07.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Patronato Parana	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
05.07.26	Patronato Parana - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
21.06.26	Patronato Parana - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Patronato Parana - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLTT
- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.07.26	Quilmes - Colegiales	0:1 ✺
12.07.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
04.07.26	Quilmes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Colegiales - Quilmes	3:1 ✺
13.06.26	Quilmes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.03.26	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	3:0
14.09.25	Patronato Parana - Quilmes	1:0
10.05.25	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	1:1
08.09.24	Patronato Parana - Quilmes	1:1
22.04.24	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	2:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.06.17	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	0:1
22.02.16	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	2:2

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