What is the expert prediction for Pau vs Montpellier?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Pau vs Montpellier. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Pau vs Montpellier Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, March 20, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 28

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free


	Pau		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.25	Watch
	2.87	3.5	2.25
	2.62	3.2	2.58	Watch
	2.9	3.52	2.44
	2.78	3.49	2.39	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.67	3.3	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.52)	3.34 ↓ (3.42)	2.42 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
33.9%

Draw
27.8%

Montpellier
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

27.3%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

27.3%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	33.3%	60%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Salles E. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 97. Meddah D. 23. Briancon A. 25. Ruiz J. (C) 3. Kalulu J. 84. Touzghar R. 21. Beusnard S. 9. Dong K. 10. Versini G. 17. Sissoko O.	31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 29. Tchato E. 15. Laporte J. (C) 6. Jullien C. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 44. Chennahi T. 23. Mouanga Y. 18. Pays N. 7. Mbuku N. 8. Issoufou Y. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
20. Anziani J. 14. Bobichon A. 6. Fall C. 26. Glossoa N. 19. Kante 22. Raveyre N. (G) 18. Sadik O.	3. El Hannach N. 10. Fayad K. 22. Gueguin A. 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 1. Michel M. (G) 21. Mincarelli L. 14. Molebe E.
Coaches
Debes T.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
45+2', Jullien C. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Issoufou Y. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
66', Touzghar R. ↓, Anziani J. ↑,
66', Mbuku N. ↓, Mincarelli L. ↑,
69', Junior Pereira da Silva E. 🟨,
73', Meddah D. 🟨,
75', Mendy A. ↓, Molebe E. ↑,
80', Meddah D. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
90', Pays N. ↓, Gueguin A. ↑,
90+1', Beusnard S. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 7).

Recent form of Pau has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montpellier is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J. (Inactive) Karamoko S. (Inactive) Raveyre N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Montpellier: Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Savanier T. (Inactive) Sishuba A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Issoufou Y. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pau won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Pau won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Montpellier	29	12	7	10	35:27	8	43
11	Pau FC	28	10	9	9	40:44	-4	39

Last Results with these Odds

Pau - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.06%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Montpellier - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.64%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
13.03.26	Clermont - Pau	0:1 ✺
06.03.26	Pau - Bastia	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Pau - Saint-Étienne	0:3 ✺
21.02.26	Troyes - Pau	4:3 ✺
13.02.26	Pau - Boulogne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTLLL
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
13.03.26	Montpellier - Laval	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Nancy - Montpellier	0:3 ✺
27.02.26	Montpellier - Reims	0:0 ✺
20.02.26	Rodez - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Montpellier - Le Mans	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
06.12.25	Montpellier - Pau	0:1
Coupe De France
06.01.23	Pau - Montpellier	2:1

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