Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 23

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday


	Real Calepina		Castellanzese

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	2.98
	2.2	3.26	3.02	Watch
	2.23	3.33	3.12
	2.2	3.2	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.12)	3.25 ↓ (3.3)	3.03 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Calepina
41.7%

Draw
28.2%

Castellanzese
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

27.1%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26.1%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Calepina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Castellanzese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Calepina than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Real Calepina - Castellanzese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Chessa M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 0 - 2, ⚽,
85', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: )).

Real Calepina is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castellanzese's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Real Calepina might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Calepina won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Calepina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Real Calepina	6	2	2	2	11:9	2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Calepina
Italian Serie D - Group B
01.02.26	Pavia - Real Calepina	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Real Calepina - Varesina	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Vogherese - Real Calepina	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Real Calepina - Brusaporto	1:0 ✺
06.01.26	Villa Valle - Real Calepina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWWWT
- USD Castellanzese
Italian Serie D - Group B
01.02.26	Castellanzese - Sondrio	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Oltrepo - Castellanzese	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Castellanzese - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Caldiero Terme - Castellanzese	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Castellanzese - Breno	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
05.10.25	Castellanzese - Real Calepina	3:2
07.01.24	Castellanzese - Real Calepina	2:1
10.09.23	Real Calepina - Castellanzese	1:1
14.04.22	Real Calepina - Castellanzese	2:1
05.12.21	Castellanzese - Real Calepina	0:2

Real Calepina - Castellanzese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide