Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 28

Date: 23 September 2024, Monday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Paysandu		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.65	3.1	2.7
	2.71	3.2	2.84
	2.66	3.06	2.76	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.7
	2.65	3.04	2.75	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.42)	3.1 ↑ (3.08)	2.74 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
35.6%

Draw
30.2%

Sport Recife
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

30.4%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

32.3%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

Paysandu - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Recife will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 2. Edilson 4. Wanderson 27. Lucas Maia 36. Kevyn 8. Joao Vieira 38. Matheus Trindade 14. Juninho 22. Jean Dias 24. Borasi B. 11. Nicolas (C)	22. Caique Franca (G) 16. Igor Carius 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 44. Chico 6. Felipinho 94. Felipe 5. Fernandez J. 48. Pedro Martins 19. Lucas Lima 18. Wellington Silva 99. Ze Roberto
Substitutes
32. Brendon 23. Carlao 18. Edinho 15. Garcia E. 19. Joel 34. Leo Pereira 35. Luan Freitas 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 5. Netinho 20. Robinho 30. Val Soares 99. Yony Gonzalez	12. Alisson Cassiano 2. Allyson 30. Chrystian Barletta 29. Dalbert 38. Dieguinho 7. Fabinho 47. Fabio Matheus 76. Jordan (G) 77. Lenny Lobato 43. Luciano 40. Luciano Castan 21. Thiago Couto (G)
Coaches
Marcio Fernandes	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Fernandez J. 🟨,
8', Matheus Trindade 🟨,
31', Wanderson 🟨,
35', Diogo Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Felipinho ↓, Dalbert ↑,
46', Pedro Martins ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
54', Joao Vieira 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Igor Carius ⚽, Ze Roberto (A),
69', Jean Dias ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
69', Nicolas ↓, Joel ↑,
77', Juninho ↓, Robinho ↑,
77', Matheus Trindade ↓, Netinho ↑,
78', Ze Roberto ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
82', Borasi B. 🟨,
85', Lucas Lima ↓, Luciano Castan ↑,
85', Borasi B. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
86', Igor Carius ↓, Alisson Cassiano ↑,
89', Dieguinho 🟨,
89', Pepa 🟨,
90+8', Felipe 🟨,
90+9', Igor Carius 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 and 5).

Recent matches Paysandu is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recife is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recife could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Recife: Palacios H. (Injury) Romarinho (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Paysandu won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.24	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
14.09.24	Paysandu - Guarani	2:1 ✺
05.09.24	Paysandu - Amazonas	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Goiás - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
26.08.24	Paysandu - Mirassol	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLTT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.24	Sport Recife - Goiás	1:1 ✺
15.09.24	Sport Recife - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
11.09.24	CRB Maceio - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
07.09.24	Avaí - Sport Recife	0:2 ✺
02.09.24	Sport Recife - Ituano	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
10.06.24	Sport Recife - Paysandu	1:0
Copa do Brasil
24.07.14	Sport Recife - Paysandu	3:2
15.05.14	Paysandu - Sport Recife	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
30.11.13	Sport Recife - Paysandu	0:0
03.09.13	Paysandu - Sport Recife	2:0

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