Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 27

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI (Porto)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Italy	DAZN Italia
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
World	Disney+


	Boavista		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.25	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3	2.25
	3.75	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.48	3.17	2.24	Watch
	3.2	2.9	2.25	Watch
	3.96	3.14	2.08	Watch
	3.75	3.2	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (2.67)	3.12 ↑ (3.1)	2.14 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
26%

Draw
30.1%

Gil Vicente
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

29.7%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

29%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boavista's form might have worsened.

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gil Vicente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boavista, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gil Vicente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Boavista - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Boavista will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boavista: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vaclik T. (G) 26. Abascal R. 18. Vukotic I. 13. Fogning S. 27. Kakay O. 24. Perez S. (C) 8. van Ginkel M. 3. Kurzawa L. 14. Kone M. 9. Bozenik R. 10. Reisinho M.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos 26. Ruben (C) 39. Buatu J. 57. Cruz S. 5. Caseres F. 8. Bamba M. A. 7. Toure T. 10. Fujimoto K. 22. Bermejo 90. Pablo
Substitutes
11. Ariyibi G. 71. Barros J. 2. Camara I. 1. Cesar (G) 21. Diaby A. 5. Lystsov V. 35. Miguel G. 16. Silva J. 19. Vitoria S.	9. Aguirre J. 99. Araujo B. (G) 29. Carlos Eduardo 28. Costa D. 19. Garcia S. 18. Joao Teixeira 33. Marques J. 77. Mboula J. 45. Mutombo J.
Coaches
Vidigal L.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
52', Reisinho M. ↓, Diaby A. ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Pablo ⚽, Toure T. (A),
56', 0 - 2, Pablo ⚽, Fujimoto K. (A),
58', Ze Carlos 🟨,
60', Perez S. ↓, Ariyibi G. ↑,
60', Kone M. ↓, Lystsov V. ↑,
65', 0 - 3, Pablo ⚽,
69', Cruz S. ↓, Mutombo J. ↑,
69', van Ginkel M. ↓, Camara I. ↑,
69', Kurzawa L. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
71', Camara I. 🟨,
73', Pablo ↓, Aguirre J. ↑,
73', Bermejo ↓, Mboula J. ↑,
78', Caseres F. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
79', Toure T. 🟨,
80', Toure T. 🟨,
81', Vitoria S. 🟥,
90+6', 1 - 3, Bozenik R. (Pen),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Boavista won 2.

Boavista is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gil Vicente has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Gil Vicente could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Gil Vicente will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Boavista: Agra S. (Red Card) Ferreira F. (Knee Injury) Joao Goncalves (Knee Injury) Moraes Pires L. H. (Knee Injury) Ribeiro M. (Knee Injury) Silva T. (Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Sithole S. (Leg Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Boavista won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:13 (average 1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Boavista won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
16.03.25	Moreirense - Boavista	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Boavista - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
02.03.25	Boavista - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Benfica - Boavista	3:0 ✺
14.02.25	Boavista - Estrela da Amadora	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
28.03.25	Gil Vicente - Benfica	0:3 ✺
15.03.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
07.03.25	Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
27.02.25	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
22.02.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.11.24	Gil Vicente - Boavista	1:2
04.05.24	Boavista - Gil Vicente	1:1
30.12.23	Gil Vicente - Boavista	1:0
12.05.23	Gil Vicente - Boavista	3:1
08.01.23	Boavista - Gil Vicente	1:0
15.01.22	Boavista - Gil Vicente	1:1
09.08.21	Gil Vicente - Boavista	3:0

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