Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 33

Date: 21 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Paços de Ferreira		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.35	3.2	2.95
	2.4	3.3	2.75
	2.46	3.34	3.11
	2.4	3.1	3
	2.38	3.38	2.97	Watch
	2.43	3.2	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.23)	3.25 ↓ (3.4)	2.96 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
39.3%

Draw
28.9%

Rio Ave
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

27.8%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.5%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.8%	21.7%	43.5%

Paços de Ferreira - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 23.2% – 63.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 18 (56.7%), project points - 22, currently - 20, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Rio Ave has the most likely position - 12 (32.3%), project points - 42, currently - 39, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 42, very small importance 0, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 3.

Paços de Ferreira is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Rio Ave is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Rio Ave could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Bernardo P. (Red Card) Djalo M. (Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Joca (Knee Injury) Ventura B. (Injury)

Last 24 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 6 matches, drawn 13 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 23-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
13.05.23	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
07.05.23	Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon	0:4 ✺
29.04.23	Vizela - Paços de Ferreira	1:2 ✺
22.04.23	Paços de Ferreira - Porto	0:2 ✺
15.04.23	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWLL
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
14.05.23	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
07.05.23	Marítimo - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
28.04.23	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:0 ✺
22.04.23	Boavista - Rio Ave	3:2 ✺
16.04.23	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
14.01.23	Rio Ave - Paços de Ferreira	0:1
25.04.21	Rio Ave - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
03.01.21	Paços de Ferreira - Rio Ave	2:0
07.06.20	Rio Ave - Paços de Ferreira	2:3
25.10.19	Paços de Ferreira - Rio Ave	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
28.12.18	Rio Ave - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
Liga Portugal
07.05.18	Paços de Ferreira - Rio Ave	0:0

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