Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.10	3.00	Watch
	2.30	3.10	2.95
	2.12	3.10	3.25
	2.33	3.15	3.48
	2.51	3.01	3	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.40
	2.25	2.90	3.22	Watch
	2.34	3.10	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.92)	3.06 ↓ (3.28)	3.17 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
40.6%

Draw
30.2%

Nacional Montevideo
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

28.1%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peñarol de Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 6. Ferreira L. 3. Lemos M. 15. Olivera M. (C) 7. Cabrera J. 8. Fernandez N. 13. Darias E. 26. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 11. Jaime C. 19. Arezo M. 99. Hernandez A.	1. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 5. Calvo F. 32. Viera T. 23. Rodriguez L. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 6. Boggio L. 8. Silva S. 31. Martinez R. 9. Gomez M.
Substitutes
77. Angulo L. 36. Barboza B. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 23. Gelini G. 93. Laxalt D. 27. Lucas Hernandez 5. Remedi E. 4. Romero F. 32. Umpierrez L.	20. Botta R. 29. Correa T. 19. De Los Santos J. 39. Gonzalez L. 22. Martin A. (G) 7. Rodriguez N. 2. Rogel A. 11. Silvera M. 36. Zuculini B.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Carreno D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Gomez M. ↓, Silvera M. ↑,
24', 0 - 1, Calvo F. ⚽,
39', Ferreira L. 🟨,
45+3', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Martinez R. ↓, Candido C. ↑,
46', Ferreira L. ↓, Barboza B. ↑,
58', Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
58', Hernandez A. ↓, Gelini G. ↑,
63', Rodriguez L. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
74', Silva S. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
74', Ancheta E. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
74', Cabrera J. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
74', Fernandez N. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
75', Darias E. 🟨,
79', Calvo F. 🟨,
84', Mejia L. 🟨,
90+1', Jaime C. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 3.

Peñarol has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Peñarol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 1.2:0.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 47.84%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.08.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
16.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Central Español	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	5:1 ✺
01.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWWW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
27.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Boston River	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
Uruguayan Super Cup
01.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.11.25	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ET
23.11.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:2
09.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:0
06.07.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 penalties
09.02.25	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1

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