Match Info

Date: 2 May 2021, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Penafiel		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.2	1.95	Watch
	3.75	3.1	1.95
	3.8	2.95	2
	3.65	3.3	1.99
	3.98	3.52	2
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	3.6	3.5	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↓ (3.84)	3.25 ↑ (3.1)	1.99 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
24.5%

Draw
28.7%

Estoril Praia
46.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.2%

30%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

22.8%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penafiel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estoril Praia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Penafiel - Estoril Praia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion to Primeira Liga).

Penafiel is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Estoril is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Penafiel could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Estoril will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
26.04.21	Benfica B - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
18.04.21	Penafiel - Cova De Piedade	2:2 ✺
10.04.21	Leixões - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
02.04.21	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	1:2 ✺
29.03.21	Chaves - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLLL
- Estoril Praia
Portuguese Liga 2
23.04.21	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	1:1 ✺
18.04.21	Porto B - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
11.04.21	Estoril Praia - Vilafranquense	3:1 ✺
03.04.21	Vizela - Estoril Praia	1:1 ✺
26.03.21	Estoril Praia - Oliveirense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
04.01.21	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	3:1
28.12.19	Penafiel - Estoril Praia	1:0
28.04.19	Penafiel - Estoril Praia	4:2
02.01.19	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	0:1
Taça de Portugal
16.12.15	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	1:0
Liga Portugal
21.03.15	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	3:3
01.11.14	Penafiel - Estoril Praia	1:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
02.11.26	Penafiel - Feirense	✺
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
31.10.26	Porto - Estoril Praia	✺

Penafiel - Estoril Praia