Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Ferreira V. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Penafiel		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2	3.2	3.25
	2.08	3.2	3.45
	2.09	3.33	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3	3.3
	2.12	3.2	3.46	Watch
	2.12	3.1	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.1)	3.16 ↓ (3.2)	3.42 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
44%

Draw
29.1%

Paços de Ferreira
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

28.8%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28.4%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: Penafiel will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Penafiel will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 27. Negrao G. 5. Sanchez J. 33. Moreira C. 2. lano Imbene 36. Dani Molina 8. Reko (C) 88. Alves R. 34. Ze Leite 95. Sery J. 37. Davo	1. Rafa (G) 22. Mota 23. Ferreira T. (C) 77. Rafael 5. Sousa A. 26. Cunha N. 88. Francisco Ramos 13. Pinto J. 36. Silva V. 9. Victor J. 30. Costinha
Substitutes
19. Alcaina R. 75. Alloh T. 4. Miguel J. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 21. Pedro Sa 14. Pereira B. 20. Santos A. 9. Suker H. 22. Xico	21. Anilson 2. Cardoso G. 15. Dias L. 3. Diegao 7. Diego Fernandes 33. Fernandinho 4. Kauan 28. Marafona (G) 19. Nito
Coaches
Aira J.	Braga N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Reko (Penalty Awarded),
21', Cunha N. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Cunha N. ⚽, Costinha (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sery J. ↓, Alcaina R. ↑,
54', 1 - 2, Pinto J. ⚽,
65', Dani Molina ↓, Pedro Sa ↑,
65', Davo ↓, Santos A. ↑,
68', Costinha ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
75', Ze Leite ↓, Suker H. ↑,
77', Pinto J. ↓, Anilson ↑,
77', Silva V. ↓, Dias L. ↑,
81', Negrao G. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
84', Cunha N. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
84', Victor J. ↓, Kauan ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Penafiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Penafiel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Penafiel - Torreense	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Porto B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
05.12.25	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Marítimo - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWLL
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
28.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Feirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5 ✺
07.12.25	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
01.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.02.25	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:2
01.09.24	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	1:3
20.04.24	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
09.12.23	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	2:1
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
13.10.19	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:2
Club Friendly
17.07.19	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	2:2

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