The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Pergolettese 36.4%
Draw 30.7%
Lumezzane 32.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40.8%
31.5%
27.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.8%
30.4%
26.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pergolettese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
Lumezzane has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lumezzane's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pergolettese than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pergolettese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lumezzane, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pergolettese - Lumezzane Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Doldi F. (G) 49. Zaia E. 73. Bassi E. 5. Silvestri T. (C) 70. Antolini J. 20. Tremolada M. 30. Berretta A. 21. Evangelista C. 10. Ferrandino D. 7. Pala A. 11. Corti N.
13. Andrenacci L. (G) 15. Ndiaye M. 21. Deratti J. 30. Boffelli A. 77. Diodato S. 8. Rocca M. 19. Rolando M. 4. Paghera F. (C) 17. Mancini S. 9. Ebone T. 32. Anatriello G.
Substitutes
12. Asperti A. (G) 18. Avena P. 1. Cordaro L. (G) 15. Dell'Orco C. 90. Giroletti M. J. 79. Gorno F. 32. La Masa C. 77. Orlandi A. 27. Pavanello A. 9. Rossetti M. 8. Stronati R.
42. Baroncioni D. 99. Belvedere F. 12. Busi M. 5. D'Agostino S. 50. D'Angelo G. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 6. Gauli N. 16. Ghidini C. 11. Ghillani A. 10. Monachello G. 27. Pavanati A. 72. Perina G.
Coaches
Giosa A.
Sammarco P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Anatriello G. ⚽, Diodato S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
55', Boffelli A. 🟨,
58', Boffelli A. 🟥,
61', Ebone T. ↓, Gauli N. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Corti N. ⚽, Pala A. (A),
74', Pala A. ↓, Rossetti M. ↑,
74', Antolini J. ↓, Avena P. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Ferrandino D. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Berretta A. ↓, Stronati R. ↑,
83', Rocca M. ↓, D'Agostino S. ↑,
84', Anatriello G. 🟥,
85', Ndiaye M. ↓, Monachello G. ↑,
90', Corti N. ↓, Pavanello A. ↑,
90', Ferrandino D. ↓, Orlandi A. ↑,
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals) and 12th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pergolettese won 3.
Pergolettese has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Lumezzane has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Pergolettese may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Pergolettese has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:7 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Pergolettese against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.3:1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
8
Pergolettese
12
4
5
3
12:12
0
17
12
Lumezzane
11
3
3
5
12:16
-4
12
Last Results with these Odds
Pergolettese - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 40.82%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
Lumezzane - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 27.67%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
Italy
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Doldi F. (G) 
Ndiaye M. 
Mancini S. 
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