Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Sandro Cabassi (Carpi)

Referee: Castellano G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Carpi		Lumezzane

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.20	2.65
	2.15	3.10	2.90	Watch
	2.71	3.30	2.60
	2.32	3.3	2.84	Watch
	2.60	3.20	2.55
	2.63	3.26	2.63	Watch
	2.42	3.20	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.61)	3.22 ↑ (3.13)	2.69 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carpi
37.5%

Draw
28.4%

Lumezzane
34.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.8%

29.1%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29.7%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carpi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Lumezzane has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Carpi - Lumezzane Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Scacchetti A. (G) 4. Zagnoni D. (C) 17. Lombardi L. 24. Desole F. 7. Cecotti T. 5. Figoli M. 6. Astrologo A. 10. Casarini F. 11. Puletto F. 90. Vitale V. 9. Montipo M.	13. Andrenacci L. (G) 21. Deratti J. 90. Nwachukwu S. J. 30. Boffelli A. 77. Diodato S. 19. Rolando M. (C) 5. D'Agostino S. 8. Rocca M. 17. Mancini S. 32. Anatriello G. 9. Ebone T.
Substitutes
8. Bagatti N. 18. Carcani T. 21. Forapani M. 22. Gasperini T. (G) 27. Giva N. 2. Maggio S. 16. Nesi L. 12. Perta A. A. (G) 83. Sall A. 25. Vaglica G. 28. Viti J.	42. Baroncioni D. 99. Belvedere F. 12. Busi M. 50. D'Angelo G. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 6. Gauli N. 16. Ghidini C. 11. Ghillani A. 44. Menegazzo L. 10. Monachello G. 15. Ndiaye M. 27. Pavanati A. 72. Perina G.
Coaches
Cassani S.	Sammarco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Nwachukwu S. J. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
25', 0 - 1, Anatriello G. ⚽, Deratti J. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 1 - 1, Figoli M. ⚽, Zagnoni D. (A),
64', Astrologo A. ↓, Forapani M. ↑,
65', Ebone T. ↓, Monachello G. ↑,
67', Desole F. 🟨,
71', Vitale V. ↓, Sall A. ↑,
76', D'Agostino S. ↓, Menegazzo L. ↑,
76', Diodato S. ↓, Ghillani A. ↑,
77', Rocca M. ↓, Pavanati A. ↑,
84', Puletto F. ↓, Vaglica G. ↑,
84', Cecotti T. ↓, Bagatti N. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Sall A. ⚽, Forapani M. (A),
90+7', 3 - 1, Montipo M. ⚽, Sall A. (A),

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 17th in the Serie C - Play Out and 10th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals)).

Carpi is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Lumezzane has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lumezzane may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Carpi is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Carpi has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11:14	-3	12
16	Carpi	10	2	3	5	14:20	-6	9

Last Results with these Odds

Lumezzane - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.17%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group A
10.10.26	Pergolettese - Carpi	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Pro Vercelli - Carpi	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Carpi - Union ArzignanoChiampo	0:3 ✺
20.09.26	Novara - Carpi	2:2 ✺
17.09.26	Carpi - Ospitaletto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTT
- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
13.10.26	Juventus U23 - Lumezzane	0:0 ✺
10.10.26	Lumezzane - AlbinoLeffe	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Inter Milan - Lumezzane	2:0
Italian Serie C Group A
26.09.26	Lumezzane - Folgore Caratese	1:2 ✺
21.09.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Lumezzane	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega Pro C1/A
03.03.13	Lumezzane - Carpi	1:1

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