Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Giuseppe Voltini (Crema)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	Pergolettese		Ospitaletto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	2.98	2.52	Watch
	2.95	2.94	2.6
	2.8	2.95	2.56	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.5
	2.87	3.03	2.56	Watch
	2.85	2.9	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.47)	2.93 ↓ (3.13)	2.56 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pergolettese
32.6%

Draw
31.4%

Ospitaletto
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

29.4%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pergolettese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Ospitaletto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pergolettese than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pergolettese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospitaletto than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Pergolettese - Ospitaletto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cordaro L. (G) 5. Milesi L. 14. Lambrughi A. 33. Capoferri M. 27. Aidoo M. 80. Jaouhari Z. 21. Careccia S. 20. Tremolada M. 19. Pala A. 11. Corti N. 10. Ferrandino D.	12. Sonzogni L. (G) 16. Gualandris M. 4. Nessi R. 33. Sina S. 13. Sinn L. 43. Guarneri M. 28. Panatti M. 10. Ievoli M. 7. Messaggi C. 9. Gobbi F. 99. Bertoli M.
Substitutes
3. Antolini J. 4. Arini M. 26. Bane A. 13. Benvenuto M. 32. Di Gesu E. 22. Doldi F. (G) 6. Dore S. 12. Finardi E. (G) 70. Orlandi A. 72. Padalino A. 30. Pepa N. 77. Pessolani G. 76. Roversi L. 82. Sartori F.	22. Bevilacqua A. (G) 77. Casali M. 75. Cortese S. (G) 79. De Matteis G. 23. Maffioletti L. 20. Maucci G. 26. Mondini G. 11. Pavanello A. 74. Pollio D. 6. Possenti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Lambrughi A. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Jaouhari Z. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Ievoli M. 🟨,
54', Guarneri M. ↓, Maffioletti L. ↑,
54', Sinn L. ↓, Casali M. ↑,
59', Ferrandino D. 🟨,
62', Tremolada M. ↓, Dore S. ↑,
69', Aidoo M. 🟨,
72', Bertoli M. ↓, Pavanello A. ↑,
75', Capoferri M. ↓, Bane A. ↑,
75', Jaouhari Z. ↓, Arini M. ↑,
81', Pala A. ↓, Antolini J. ↑,
81', Ferrandino D. ↓, Orlandi A. ↑,
85', Gualandris M. ↓, Mondini G. ↑,
86', Ievoli M. ↓, Maucci G. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 13).

Pergolettese has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ospitaletto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pergolettese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Pergolettese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ospitaletto	8	4	3	1	14:6	8	15
11	Pergolettese	9	2	5	2	5:6	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Pergolettese - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.26%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pergolettese
Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Cittadella - Pergolettese	3:3 ✺
10.01.26	Pergolettese - Lumezzane	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Renate - Pergolettese	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Lecco - Pergolettese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Pergolettese - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLLL
- CPR Ospitaletto
Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Ospitaletto - Triestina	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Vicenza Virtus - Ospitaletto	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Ospitaletto - Lecco	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Ospitaletto - Pro Vercelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
12.09.25	Ospitaletto - Pergolettese	1:2
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Pergolettese - Ospitaletto	0:0

Upcoming Matches