Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 23

Date: 4 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Valeri P. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Brescia

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.9	3.25	4.2
	1.95	3.15	4.2	Watch
	2.03	3.05	3.55
	1.96	3.3	4.61
	2	3.1	4
	1.92	3.38	4.15	Watch
	1.9	3.35	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.42)	3.25 ↑ (3)	4.14 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Perugia
48.3%

Draw
29%

Brescia
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

31.2%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

31.5%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Perugia's performance.

Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brescia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Perugia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brescia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Perugia - Brescia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Brescia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Perugia: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Perugia has the most likely position - 18 (11.2%), has project points - 44, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Brescia has the most likely position - 18 (11.54%), has project points - 44, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 56, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1.

Perugia is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Brescia has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Perugia is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Perugia won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 24-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
28.01.23	Bari - Perugia	0:2 ✺
21.01.23	Parma - Perugia	2:0 ✺
14.01.23	Perugia - Palermo	3:3 ✺
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
19.12.22	Perugia - Venezia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WLTWW
- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
28.01.23	Brescia - Como	0:1 ✺
22.01.23	Brescia - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
15.01.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Brescia	1:0 ✺
26.12.22	Brescia - Palermo	1:1 ✺
17.12.22	Pisa - Brescia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
03.09.22	Brescia - Perugia	2:1
14.05.22	Brescia - Perugia	3:2 ET
01.03.22	Brescia - Perugia	2:1
16.10.21	Perugia - Brescia	1:0
Coppa Italia
28.10.20	Brescia - Perugia	3:0
18.08.19	Perugia - Brescia	2:1 ET
Italian Serie B
19.01.19	Perugia - Brescia	0:2

Upcoming Matches