Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 20

Date: 14 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Palermo

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3	3.25
	2.25	3.05	3.35
	2.32	2.95	3.2
	2.4	3.04	3.54
	2.3	2.9	3.4
	2.32	3.02	3.44	Watch
	2.32	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.28)	3.04 ↓ (3.14)	3.32 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
40.8%

Draw
30.9%

Palermo
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

29.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

30.3%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	44.4%	0%

Perugia - Palermo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Perugia: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 13).

Perugia has the most likely position - 19 (11.99%), has project points - 43, has currently - 19, has a chance of relegated (41%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Palermo has the most likely position - 16 (9.31%), has project points - 45, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (29%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (13%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 28, importance 50, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Perugia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palermo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Perugia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
19.12.22	Perugia - Venezia	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWLTT
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Brescia - Palermo	1:1 ✺
18.12.22	Palermo - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	SPAL - Palermo	1:1 ✺
08.12.22	Palermo - Como	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	Benevento - Palermo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.08.22	Palermo - Perugia	2:0
09.02.19	Perugia - Palermo	1:2
22.09.18	Palermo - Perugia	4:1
17.02.18	Perugia - Palermo	1:0
19.09.17	Palermo - Perugia	1:0

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