Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 21

Date: 21 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Ayroldi G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Parma		Perugia

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.87	3.3	4.33
	1.78	3.35	4.7
	1.88	3.2	4.3
	1.99	3.29	4.49
	1.85	3.25	4.5
	1.81	3.48	4.55	Watch
	1.9	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.97)	3.31 ↑ (3.1)	4.42 ↑ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
50.2%

Draw
28.5%

Perugia
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

30.2%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

31.5%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Parma - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Parma will win (votes: 10 - 50%). Perugia will win (votes: 6 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Parma: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Parma has the most likely position - 6 (9.66%), has project points - 54, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (51%), has a small chance of promoted (15%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 19 (15.08%), has project points - 42, has currently - 20, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 33, importance 40, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Parma is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Perugia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Parma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Parma have a series of guest games.

In this match Parma is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Parma won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Parma won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie B
14.01.23	Bari - Parma	4:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
10.01.23	Inter Milan - Parma	2:1 ET ✺
Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Venezia - Parma	2:2 ✺
18.12.22	Parma - SPAL	0:1 ✺
12.12.22	Brescia - Parma	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTLW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
14.01.23	Perugia - Palermo	3:3 ✺
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
19.12.22	Perugia - Venezia	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
20.08.22	Perugia - Parma	0:0
25.04.22	Perugia - Parma	2:1
12.12.21	Parma - Perugia	1:1
11.02.18	Parma - Perugia	1:1
16.09.17	Perugia - Parma	3:0

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