Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 32

Date: 10 April 2023, Monday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Cosso F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Modena

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.2
	2.25	3.1	3.35
	2.41	3.17	3.36
	2.29	3.14	3.3	Watch
	2.31	3.2	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.25)	3.17 ↑ (3)	3.27 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
41.1%

Draw
29.9%

Modena
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

29.7%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

28.5%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	53.3%	0%

Perugia - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 53.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 11).

Perugia has the most likely position - 16 (16.48%), project points - 44, currently - 34, a chance of relegated (23%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Modena has the most likely position - 12 (13.95%), project points - 48, currently - 39, a very small chance of relegated (5%), a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 32, small importance 29, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 3.

Recent matches Perugia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Modena is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Perugia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Perugia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Perugia won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.04.23	Perugia - Reggina	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	Perugia - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Cittadella - Perugia	0:2 ✺
05.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	Perugia - Como	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTWLT
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
02.04.23	Modena - Cittadella	0:0 ✺
17.03.23	Palermo - Modena	5:2 ✺
11.03.23	Modena - Pisa	1:0 ✺
05.03.23	Como - Modena	1:0 ✺
01.03.23	Modena - Ascoli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
12.11.22	Modena - Perugia	1:1
Italian Serie C Group B
27.02.21	Perugia - Modena	3:0
01.11.20	Modena - Perugia	0:1
Italian Serie B
19.04.16	Modena - Perugia	3:0
04.12.15	Perugia - Modena	1:0
13.02.15	Perugia - Modena	2:0
23.09.14	Modena - Perugia	0:0

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