Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 30

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato (Cittadella)

Referee: Gualtieri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Cittadella		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2.6	3	3	Watch
	2.5	2.95	3
	2.55	2.95	2.95
	2.48	2.9	2.95
	2.63	2.95	3.25
	2.6	2.9	2.9
	2.56	2.97	3.04	Watch
	2.48	2.95	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.46)	2.95 ↑ (2.88)	3.01 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cittadella
36.9%

Draw
31.9%

Perugia
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

31.9%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

31.1%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cittadella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	54.5%	27.3%

Cittadella - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Cittadella will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Perugia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 14 and 15).

Cittadella has the most likely position - 14 (13.32%), project points - 46, currently - 35, a small chance of relegated (13%), a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 15 (13.73%), project points - 44, currently - 30, a chance of relegated (23%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 31, importance 38, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cittadella won 3.

Recent matches Cittadella is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Perugia is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Perugia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Cittadella won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Cittadella won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie B
11.03.23	Cittadella - Palermo	3:3 ✺
05.03.23	SPAL - Cittadella	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	Cittadella - Brescia	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Ternana - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Cittadella - Reggina	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TLTWW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	Perugia - Como	0:0 ✺
24.02.23	Pisa - Perugia	2:1 ✺
18.02.23	Perugia - Ternana	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Ascoli - Perugia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
30.10.22	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2
06.04.22	Cittadella - Perugia	0:0
27.11.21	Perugia - Cittadella	1:1
29.06.20	Cittadella - Perugia	2:0
09.11.19	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2
01.05.19	Perugia - Cittadella	0:0
23.12.18	Cittadella - Perugia	2:2

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