Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 31

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Feliciani E. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Perugia		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	2.3	Watch
	3.3	2.95	2.3
	3.45	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.62	2.99	2.4
	3.2	3.1	2.3
	3.38	3.15	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (3.22)	3.01 ↓ (3.2)	2.31 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
27.8%

Draw
31.3%

Frosinone
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

29.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

28.8%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Frosinone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	38.5%	38.5%

Perugia - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Frosinone will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Frosinone: 12% – 65%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Perugia has the most likely position - 13 (13.04%), project points - 46, currently - 33, a small chance of relegated (12%), a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Frosinone has the most likely position - 1 (74.3%), project points - 75, currently - 62, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), a very good chance of promoted (>99%), a good chance of win league (74%).

This event has quality 40, importance 54, match rating 47. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Frosinone will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Perugia won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 19-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.03.23	Cittadella - Perugia	0:2 ✺
05.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	Perugia - Como	0:0 ✺
24.02.23	Pisa - Perugia	2:1 ✺
18.02.23	Perugia - Ternana	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTLW
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.03.23	Frosinone - Nuova Cosenza	0:1 ✺
11.03.23	Bari - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Frosinone - Venezia	3:0 ✺
01.03.23	SPAL - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
24.02.23	Frosinone - Parma	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.11.22	Frosinone - Perugia	1:0
12.02.22	Perugia - Frosinone	3:0
11.09.21	Frosinone - Perugia	0:0
16.02.20	Frosinone - Perugia	1:0
24.09.19	Perugia - Frosinone	3:1
24.02.18	Frosinone - Perugia	1:3
23.09.17	Perugia - Frosinone	1:0

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