Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4


	Caracas		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	6	4	1.57	Watch
	5.75	3.7	1.6
	5.5	3.75	1.62
	6.26	3.87	1.6
	6.26	3.87	1.6
	5.5	3.7	1.53	Watch
	5.6	3.85	1.63	Watch
	5.8	3.8	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.83 ↑ (3.9)	3.82 ↑ (3.4)	1.59 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caracas
16.1%

Draw
24.6%

Peñarol de Montevideo
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

27.4%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

26.6%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caracas's form might have worsened.

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peñarol de Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caracas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Benitez F. (G) 4. Rodriguez B. 2. Mantia F. 29. Rivas R. 25. Tamayo B. 27. Edet B. 8. Ortega B. 30. Casiani L. 22. Sulbaran M. 7. Perez D. 11. Pernia E. (C)	12. De Amores G. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. 14. Garcia D. 26. Sequeira L. 8. Fernandez L. 10. Ramirez G. (C) 19. Sosa D. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
16. Figueroa R. 23. Hernandez W. (G) 24. Jimenez N. 38. Lezama R. 19. Manrique R. 39. Mollica P. 13. Moreno E. 28. Padilla D. 6. Quijada R. 17. Reinoso L. 18. Rivas A. 5. Vegas M.	33. Acosta N. 7. Cabrera J. 6. Castillo Segura B. D. 5. Cristoforo S. 3. Gianoli M. 30. Gonzalez A. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 22. Matheus Babi 21. Morgan Michelena K. M. (G) 1. Rodriguez R. (G) 25. Sosa I.
Coaches
Melendez H.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Rodriguez G. ⚽, Fernandez L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Garcia D. 🟨,
57', Sosa D. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
57', Ramirez G. ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
66', Sulbaran M. ↓, Moreno E. ↑,
66', Pernia E. ↓, Reinoso L. ↑,
71', Moreno E. 🟨,
72', Rodriguez B. ↓, Quijada R. ↑,
77', Fernandez L. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
77', Milans P. ↓, Castillo Segura B. D. ↑,
81', Rivas R. ↓, Figueroa R. ↑,
82', Casiani L. ↓, Rivas A. ↑,
88', Mendez J. ↓, Leo Coelho ↑,
90+4', Tamayo B. 🟨,

Preview

Caracas is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Peñarol is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Peñarol is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Caracas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caracas FC
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Caracas - Rosario Central	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
19.04.24	Carabobo - Caracas	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Caracas - Universidad Central	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Caracas	5:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
07.04.24	Metropolitanos - Caracas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTLT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
29.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
17.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Caracas	5:0

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