Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	6	Watch
	1.9	3.3	4.1
	1.6	3.55	5.9	Watch
	1.61	3.79	6.45
	1.89	3.34	4.38	Watch
	1.6	3.4	5.75
	1.64	3.83	5.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.87)	3.57 ↑ (3.41)	5.5 ↑ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
56.1%

Draw
26.6%

Independiente Santa Fe
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.2%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

27.1%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peñarol de Montevideo's performance.

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Santa Fe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peñarol de Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Santa Fe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 36. Barboza B. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 2. Escobar F. 21. Jesus Trindade (C) 77. Angulo L. 8. Fernandez N. 93. Laxalt D. 32. Umpierrez L. 19. Arezo M.	1. Mosquera A. (G) 4. Puerta M. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 24. Angulo J. 7. Torres J. 16. Torres D. 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 19. Bustos N. 10. Zapata A. 11. Rodallega H. (C)
Substitutes
9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 7. Cabrera J. 13. Darias E. 4. Gularte E. 11. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 5. Remedi E. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G.	12. Asprilla W. (G) 9. Fagundez F. 17. Lovera M. 22. Mosquera E. 21. Murillo E. 77. Obrian J. 14. Palacios L. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 20. Velasquez Y.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Repetto P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Zapata A. ⚽, Bustos N. (A),
24', Angulo L. ↓, Darias E. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barboza B. ↓, Gularte E. ↑,
46', Laxalt D. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
46', Escobar F. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
46', Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
53', Gularte E. 🟨,
60', Bustos N. ↓, Velasquez Y. ↑,
65', Zapata A. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
69', Lemos M. ↓, Cabrera J. ↑,
72', Puerta M. 🟨,
74', Puerta M. ↓, Scarpeta Silgado I. R. ↑,
82', Cabrera J. 🟨,
83', Angulo J. 🟨,

Preview

Peñarol is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Santa Fe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Santa Fe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Peñarol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.65%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 4.03 are the expected chance of winning is 23.1%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
11.05.26	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Platense - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTWWT
- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
23.05.26	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0 penalties ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Platense	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
16.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Junior Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
12.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - América de Cali	4:0 ✺
09.05.26	América de Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1

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