Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 27 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Subaru Park (Chester)


	Philadelphia Union		FC Dallas

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.4
	1.78	3.75	4.33	Watch
	1.77	3.91	4.76
	1.75	3.7	4.33
	1.74	3.8	4.45	Watch
	1.77	3.7	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.61)	3.72 ↓ (3.83)	4.45 ↓ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philadelphia Union
53.5%

Draw
25.4%

FC Dallas
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

24%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

23.2%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philadelphia Union has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

FC Dallas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Philadelphia Union, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Philadelphia Union - FC Dallas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Philadelphia will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Dallas will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Philadelphia: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Blake A. (G) 15. Mbaizo O. 17. Lowe D. 3. Elliott J. 27. Wagner K. 20. Bueno J. 11. Bedoya A. 16. McGlynn J. 10. Gazdag D. 33. Sullivan Q. 7. Uhre M.	30. Paes M. (G) 22. Twumasi E. 25. Ibeagha S. 17. Nkosi Tafari 29. Junqua S. 8. Obrian J. 19. Pomykal P. 18. Fraser L. 11. Sealy D. 9. Jimenez J. 20. Velasco A.
Substitutes
28. Baribo T. 12. Bendik J. (G) 25. Donovan C. 26. Harriel N. 29. Makhanya O. 14. Rafanello J. 2. Real M. 19. Torres J.	31. Ansah E. 7. Arriola P. 4. Farfan M. 10. Ferreira J. 14. Illarramendi A. 24. Korca A. 3. Martinez J. 1. Maurer J. (G) 5. Quignon F.
Coaches
Curtin J.	Estevez N.

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Philadelphia won 1.

Philadelphia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Dallas is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Philadelphia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match Philadelphia is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Philadelphia to win the game is with odds 1.62.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Philadelphia won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 12-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Philadelphia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philadelphia Union
MLS
23.09.23	Philadelphia Union - Los Angeles	0:0 ✺
20.09.23	Charlotte - Philadelphia Union	2:2 ✺
16.09.23	Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati	2:2 ✺
03.09.23	Philadelphia Union - New York Red Bulls	4:1 ✺
30.08.23	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTTWL
- FC Dallas
MLS
23.09.23	FC Dallas - Columbus Crew	1:1 ✺
20.09.23	Real Salt Lake - FC Dallas	1:3 ✺
16.09.23	FC Dallas - Seattle Sounders	1:1 ✺
02.09.23	FC Dallas - Atlanta United	2:2 ✺
30.08.23	St. Louis City - FC Dallas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
17.08.22	FC Dallas - Philadelphia Union	1:0
29.02.20	FC Dallas - Philadelphia Union	2:0
Club Friendly
19.02.20	Philadelphia Union - FC Dallas	2:3
MLS
06.04.19	Philadelphia Union - FC Dallas	2:1
21.04.18	FC Dallas - Philadelphia Union	2:0
05.08.17	Philadelphia Union - FC Dallas	3:1
06.03.16	FC Dallas - Philadelphia Union	2:0

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