Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)

Referee: Pennington A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Pittsburgh Riverhounds		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.35	4.15
	1.85	3.45	4.74
	1.76	3.56	4.53	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.2
	1.83	3.45	4.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.19)	3.38 ↑ (3.07)	4.38 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
51.3%

Draw
27.5%

Phoenix Rising
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

30%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

28.7%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pittsburgh Riverhounds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pittsburgh Riverhounds's performance.

Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Phoenix Rising might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pittsburgh Riverhounds than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pittsburgh Riverhounds that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Phoenix Rising could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campuzano N. (G) 13. Viera M. 5. Souza V. 6. Mikoy O. 4. Kelp L. 42. Walti J. 14. Mertz R. 2. Griffin D. (C) 37. Goldthorp E. 9. Dikwa A. 19. Bassett S.	1. Rakovsky P. (G) 2. Smith C. 4. Mar Boye P. 17. JP Scearce (C) 68. Irwin J. 20. Biasi L. 8. Gomez D. 13. Moursou J. 10. Avayevu H. 12. Dennis C. 7. Sacko I.
Substitutes
10. Ahl C. 7. Amann T. 3. Barnes P. 8. Etou B. 27. Flowers-Gamboa A. 28. Osumanu I. 15. Sample B. 24. Sheridan M. (G)	80. Balanzar A. 47. Cross N. 33. Gaydon J. 14. Odunze C. (G) 24. Pelayo A. 91. Ramirez E. 11. Studenhofft G.
Coaches
Vincent R.	Kah P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Dikwa A. 🟨,
57', Moursou J. 🟨,
63', Irwin J. ↓, Studenhofft G. ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Sacko I. ⚽,
70', Sacko I. ↓, Ramirez E. ↑,
74', Walti J. ↓, Ahl C. ↑,
85', Goldthorp E. ↓, Etou B. ↑,
85', Souza V. ↓, Amann T. ↑,
89', Dennis C. 🟨,
90+5', Avayevu H. ↓, Gaydon J. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals))

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Pittsburgh is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pittsburgh won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pittsburgh won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pittsburgh Riverhounds
USL Cup
25.04.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Greenville Triumph	3:0 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Detroit City	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	New York Red Bulls - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
12.04.26	Birmingham Legion - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Indy Eleven - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLLT
- Phoenix Rising
USL Cup
25.04.26	Phoenix Rising - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Miami - Phoenix Rising	0:3 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
11.04.26	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
25.10.25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Phoenix Rising	0:0
20.04.24	Phoenix Rising - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:3
03.06.23	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Phoenix Rising	1:0

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