Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio (Picerno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Picerno		Casertana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.72	3.4	2.35
	2.99	3.1	2.52
	5.76	4.40	1.48	Watch
	2.8	3.42	2.38	Watch
	2.25	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.29)	3.46 ↑ (3.15)	2.31 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Picerno
29.5%

Draw
28.2%

Casertana
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

28.1%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Picerno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Picerno's form might have worsened.

Casertana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casertana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Picerno than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Picerno, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casertana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Picerno - Casertana Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Picerno will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Casertana will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Picerno (votes: 1 - 25%). Casertana (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Summa E. (G) 4. Frison F. 5. Veltri A. 14. Vimercati A. 21. Salvo G. 6. Marino A. 8. Graziani V. (C) 34. Maselli S. 2. Perri M. 7. Energe A. 90. Abreu L.	1. De Lucia V. (G) 18. Oukhadda S. 13. Bacchetti L. (C) 33. Rocchi G. 94. Liotti D. 25. Toscano M. 16. Pezzella S. 6. Heinz J. 9. Kallon Y. 91. Vano M. 20. Bentivegna A.
Substitutes
33. Bocic M. 77. Cardoni K. 22. Cortese S. (G) 25. Djibril M. 12. Esposito A. (G) 11. Esposito E. 18. Garcia R. 23. Granata A. 10. Maiorino P. 70. Petito F. 63. Pistolesi F. 19. Santaniello E. 9. Santarcangelo A.	51. Arzillo V. 77. Capasso C. 90. Casarotto M. 21. Di Tommaso L. 3. Falasca M. 11. Galletta U. 4. Kontek I. 10. Leone K. 5. Llano Massa M. T. 12. Merolla E. (G) 22. Vilardi A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Bentivegna A. ⚽,
14', Liotti D. 🟨,
28', 0 - 2, Bentivegna A. ⚽,
31', Frison F. 🟨,
35', Rocchi G. 🟨,
40', Maselli S. 🟨,
44', Kallon Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Maselli S. ↓, Esposito E. ↑,
46', Kallon Y. ↓, Casarotto M. ↑,
46', Frison F. ↓, Santarcangelo A. ↑,
57', Pezzella S. ↓, Llano Massa M. T. ↑,
70', Perri M. ↓, Pistolesi F. ↑,
70', Vimercati A. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
75', Heinz J. ↓, Kontek I. ↑,
78', Energe A. ↓, Santaniello E. ↑,
80', Marino A. 🟨,
88', Bentivegna A. ↓, Leone K. ↑,
88', Oukhadda S. ↓, Galletta U. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Picerno won 1.

Picerno is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Casertana has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Picerno won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Picerno won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Picerno ASD
Italian Serie C Group C
04.10.25	Crotone - Picerno	3:0 ✺
29.09.25	Picerno - Foggia	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	Picerno - Benevento	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Potenza - Picerno	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Picerno - Casarano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTLL
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
05.10.25	Casertana - Casarano	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Crotone - Casertana	0:1 ✺
24.09.25	Foggia - Casertana	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Casertana - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Trapani - Casertana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
11.01.25	Casertana - Picerno	0:1
07.09.24	Picerno - Casertana	0:0
14.04.24	Casertana - Picerno	2:1
08.12.23	Picerno - Casertana	0:0
02.02.20	Casertana - Picerno	1:1
22.09.19	Picerno - Casertana	1:1
Coppa Italia
28.07.18	Casertana - Picerno	2:0

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