Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 21

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani (Pineto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno


	Pineto		Guidonia Montecelio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.38	2.98	2.98
	2.53	2.83	2.96	Watch
	2.45	2.7	2.88
	2.46	2.82	2.84	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.19)	2.89 ↓ (3.18)	2.89 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pineto
37%

Draw
31.6%

Guidonia Montecelio
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.9%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

27.8%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pineto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Guidonia Montecelio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pineto than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pineto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guidonia Montecelio than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Pineto - Guidonia Montecelio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tonti A. (G) 4. Postiglione N. 52. Frare D. 3. Ienco S. 16. Gagliardi L. 8. Germinario G. 21. Lombardi L. 99. Pellegrino A. 11. Borsoi M. 9. D'Andrea F. 24. Vigliotti G.	1. Stellato G. (G) 2. Esempio S. 5. Cristini A. 3. Frascatore P. 7. Sannipoli D. 33. Tascone S. 14. Santoro S. 21. Mastrantonio V. 8. Errico A. 23. Starita E. 32. Zuppel D.
Substitutes
6. Amadio S. 77. Boccacci F. 55. Capomaggio T. 79. Di Lazzaro F. 1. Marone F. (G) 7. Marrancone A. 68. Menna T. 28. Nebuloso G. 39. Sabatelli A. 25. Saccomanni G. 23. Serbouti A. 18. Viero F.	90. Bernardotto G. 30. Chiappini A. 20. Falleni A. 22. Mastrangelo E. (G) 12. Mazzi G. (G) 24. Russo L. 10. Spavone A. 17. Stefanelli F. 4. Toma R. 27. Viteritti O. 66. Vitturini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Vigliotti G. ⚽,
11', Santoro S. 🟨,
13', 2 - 0, Gagliardi L. ⚽,
22', Mastrantonio V. ↓, Viteritti O. ↑,
32', 2 - 1, Zuppel D. ⚽,
41', Cristini A. 🟨,
44', 3 - 1, Ienco S. ⚽,
45+5', Zuppel D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
64', Cristini A. 🟨,
66', Sannipoli D. ↓, Vitturini D. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Zuppel D. ⚽,
73', Gagliardi L. ↓, Serbouti A. ↑,
73', Lombardi L. ↓, Amadio S. ↑,
81', Vigliotti G. ↓, Marrancone A. ↑,
81', Pellegrino A. ↓, Viero F. ↑,
84', Errico A. ↓, Spavone A. ↑,
84', Starita E. ↓, Bernardotto G. ↑,
90+5', Ienco S. 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 3, Zuppel D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Pineto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pineto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Guidonia	8	3	3	2	10:7	3	12
16	Pineto	8	1	4	3	6:11	-5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Pineto Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
03.01.26	Vis Pesaro - Pineto	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Pineto - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
15.12.25	Arezzo - Pineto	3:3 ✺
07.12.25	Sassari Torres - Pineto	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Pineto - Ravenna	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWTTL
- Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC
Italian Serie C Group B
04.01.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Perugia	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Carpi - Guidonia Montecelio	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Juventus U23	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Ternana - Guidonia Montecelio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
01.09.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Pineto	0:2

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