Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani (Pisa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	15:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	10:00	Disney+
Armenia	17:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	23:00	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	10:00	Disney+
Canada	09:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	21:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	16:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	15:00	DAZN France
Germany	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	21:00	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:00	Net4+
Indonesia	20:00	Vidio
Israel	16:00	Sport 2
Italy	15:00	215 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	22:00	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	21:00	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	07:00	Disney+
New Zealand	02:00	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	15:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:00	VG+
Peru	08:00	Disney+
Poland	15:00	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	16:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	16:00	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	16:00	STC TV
Serbia	15:00	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport 4
South Korea	22:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	16:00	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	14:00	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	10:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	09:00	Disney+
Vietnam	20:00	ON Football


	Pisa		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.55	3.25	2.18	Watch
	3.65	3.32	2.24
	3.36	3.16	2.22	Watch
	3.55	3.45	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (3.42)	3.32 ↓ (3.34)	2.19 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pisa
27.3%

Draw
29%

Fiorentina
43.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.8%

28.5%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

28.7%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pisa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pisa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	19.4%	69.4%

Pisa - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Pisa will win (votes: 4 - 11.1%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 25 - 69.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 54.3% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Pisa (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Pisa (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Semper A. (G) 5. Canestrelli S. 4. Caracciolo Ant. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 15. Toure I. 6. Marin M. 20. Aebischer M. 14. Akinsanmiro E. 7. Leris M. 10. Tramoni M. 18. Nzola M.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 22. Fazzini J. 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
39. Albiol R. 3. Angori S. 16. Buffon L. 33. Calabresi A. 11. Cuadrado J. 8. Hojholt M. 99. Lorran 47. Mateus Lusuardi 76. Mbambi J. 9. Meister H. 32. Moreo S. 12. Nicolas Andrade (G) 36. Piccinini G. 22. Scuffet S. (G) 21. Vural I.	15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 44. Fagioli N. 29. Fortini N. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 11. Sabiri A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Gilardino A.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Kean M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Aebischer M. ↓, Hojholt M. ↑,
67', Marin M. ↓, Vural I. ↑,
67', Leris M. ↓, Cuadrado J. ↑,
68', Nzola M. ↓, Meister H. ↑,
74', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
80', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
87', Tramoni M. ↓, Moreo S. ↑,
87', Fazzini J. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,

Preview

Pisa has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Fiorentina has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pisa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fiorentina could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Pisa: Stengs C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Pisa: Denoon D. (Illness) Esteves T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Pisa
Coppa Italia
25.09.25	Torino - Pisa	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	Pisa - Udinese	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Pisa - Roma	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Atalanta - Pisa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLLT
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Fiorentina - Como	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
31.08.25	Torino - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Fiorentina - Polissya Zhytomyr	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.08.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTWT

Upcoming Matches