Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani (Pisa)

Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	Net4+
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	215 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Football


	Pisa		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.55	3.25	2.18	Watch
	3.65	3.32	2.24
	3.36	3.16	2.22	Watch
	3.55	3.45	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (3.42)	3.32 ↓ (3.34)	2.19 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pisa
27.3%

Draw
29%

Fiorentina
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

28.5%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

28.7%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pisa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pisa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	19.4%	69.4%

Pisa - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Pisa will win (votes: 4 - 11.1%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 25 - 69.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 54.3% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Pisa (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Pisa (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Semper A. (G) 5. Canestrelli S. 4. Caracciolo Ant. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 15. Toure I. 6. Marin M. 20. Aebischer M. 14. Akinsanmiro E. 7. Leris M. 10. Tramoni M. 18. Nzola M.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 22. Fazzini J. 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
39. Albiol R. 3. Angori S. 16. Buffon L. 33. Calabresi A. 11. Cuadrado J. 8. Hojholt M. 99. Lorran 47. Mateus Lusuardi 76. Mbambi J. 9. Meister H. 32. Moreo S. 12. Nicolas Andrade (G) 36. Piccinini G. 22. Scuffet S. (G) 21. Vural I.	15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 44. Fagioli N. 29. Fortini N. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 11. Sabiri A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Gilardino A.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Kean M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Aebischer M. ↓, Hojholt M. ↑,
67', Marin M. ↓, Vural I. ↑,
67', Leris M. ↓, Cuadrado J. ↑,
68', Nzola M. ↓, Meister H. ↑,
74', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
80', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
87', Tramoni M. ↓, Moreo S. ↑,
87', Fazzini J. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,

Preview

Pisa has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Fiorentina has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pisa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fiorentina could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Pisa: Stengs C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Pisa: Denoon D. (Illness) Esteves T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Pisa
Coppa Italia
25.09.25	Torino - Pisa	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	Pisa - Udinese	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Pisa - Roma	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Atalanta - Pisa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLLT
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Fiorentina - Como	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
31.08.25	Torino - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Fiorentina - Polissya Zhytomyr	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.08.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTWT

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