Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 19 May 2025, Monday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport


	Plaza Colonia		Danubio

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.33	3	3.15	Watch
	2.5	2.9	3.49
	2.39	2.77	3.49	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3.2
	2.3	3.09	3.22	Watch
	2.33	3	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.42)	2.95 ↑ (2.93)	3.23 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
39.5%

Draw
31.6%

Danubio
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

31.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

29.5%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Plaza Colonia - Danubio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Silva J. (G) 20. Redin E. 2. Lorenzi M. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 17. Otegui S. 6. Redin M. 3. Calleros Y. (C) 80. Carrizo L. 11. Pablo Garcia 27. Barros C. 7. Diogo Oliveira	1. Goicoechea M. (C) 21. Gonzalez F. 24. Perg M. 2. Velazquez E. 8. Rabino R. 19. Romero S. 7. Pintos I. 17. Velazquez A. 14. Fernandez J. 11. Sanseviero L. 30. Fernandez S.
Substitutes
18. Cayetano A. 10. Ebere C. 13. Garcia J. 5. Meite Y. 30. Ocampo A. 23. Piriz F. 22. Ramos J. 44. Reyes G. (G) 14. Traore M. 8. Villalba D.	27. Arguello M. 18. Azambuja N. 15. Balatti F. 28. Femia E. 23. Gonzalez M. 13. Novick H. 9. Nunez S. 16. Peralta M. 12. Rio J. (G) 4. Risso M.
Coaches
Diaz S.	Olivera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Redin E. ↓, Traore M. ↑,
20', Velazquez A. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Pablo Garcia (A),
26', Diogo Oliveira 🟨,
45+1', Romero S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gonzalez F. ↓, Arguello M. ↑,
58', Pintos I. 🟨,
65', Romero S. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
66', Pintos I. ↓, Peralta M. ↑,
67', Calleros Y. 🟨,
69', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Fernandez S. ⚽,
82', Fernandez J. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
82', Redin M. ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
82', Carrizo L. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
82', Pablo Garcia ↓, Villalba D. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Nunez S. ⚽,
90+2', Fernandez S. ↓, Risso M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 1.

Plaza Colonia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Danubio has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Plaza Colonia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Plaza Colonia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 0.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Plaza Colonia - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLTL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Danubio - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Danubio - Boston River	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
08.10.23	Plaza Colonia - Danubio	1:0
26.02.23	Danubio - Plaza Colonia	5:0
13.09.22	Danubio - Plaza Colonia	1:1
21.07.22	Danubio - Plaza Colonia	2:0
09.04.22	Plaza Colonia - Danubio	1:1
10.02.21	Plaza Colonia - Danubio	3:0
19.08.20	Danubio - Plaza Colonia	0:1

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