Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Uruguay	VTV+
World	Disney+


	Progreso		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.4
	2.9	3.15	2.39	Watch
	3.04	3.12	2.4	Watch
	2.9	3	2.4
	2.92	3.35	2.34	Watch
	2.9	3.15	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.8)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	2.37 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
31.8%

Draw
29.2%

Plaza Colonia
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

28.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.2%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Progreso - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gentilio N. (G) 13. Carroso H. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 32. Ordonez C. 16. Trasante G. 25. Garcia A. 5. Pinheiro A. 7. Moreira A. 10. Lopez P. 22. Fernandez E. 9. Gonzalez N.	25. Silva J. (G) 20. Redin E. 2. Lorenzi M. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 22. Ramos J. 23. Piriz F. (C) 3. Calleros Y. 80. Carrizo L. 11. Pablo Garcia 10. Ebere C. 7. Diogo Oliveira
Substitutes
28. Asconeguy D. 29. Fernandez N. 4. Martin M. 21. Rivero J. 18. Silva G. 6. Silvera F. 17. Sosa F. 33. Suarez N. (G) 20. Viera M.	9. Alex Bruno 27. Barros C. 18. Cayetano A. 5. Meite Y. 30. Ocampo A. 17. Otegui S. 6. Redin M. 44. Reyes G. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 8. Villalba D.
Coaches
Larrea A.	Diaz S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lopez P. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
46', Trasante G. 🟨,
59', Trasante G. ↓, Asconeguy D. ↑,
67', Carrizo L. ↓, Barros C. ↑,
67', Piriz F. ↓, Villalba D. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Diogo Oliveira ⚽,
70', Pablo Garcia 🟨,
71', Ordonez C. ↓, Silvera F. ↑,
71', Fernandez E. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
73', Pablo Garcia ↓, Redin M. ↑,
82', Ebere C. ↓, Alex Bruno ↑,
83', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Fernandez N. ⚽,
85', Pinheiro A. ↓, Viera M. ↑,
90+4', Redin M. 🟨,
90+4', Calleros Y. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Progreso won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Progreso won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:7 (average 0.9:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Progreso won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.8:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.02%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Cerro - Progreso	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
27.03.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Miramar Misiones - Progreso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLTWT
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.04.25	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Boston River	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
30.10.21	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	2:1
05.07.21	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	1:2
21.01.21	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1
24.10.20	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	0:0
23.02.20	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	2:2
24.10.19	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1
07.04.19	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	0:1

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