Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport
Spain	Gol Play
Uruguay	VTV+
World	Disney+


	Plaza Colonia		Racing Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.2
	2.19	3.05	3.4	Watch
	2.27	3.03	3.4	Watch
	2.4	2.88	3.2
	2.25	3.03	3.39	Watch
	2.19	3.05	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.75)	3.05 ↑ (2.91)	3.28 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
41.3%

Draw
30.5%

Racing Montevideo
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

31.9%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

32.2%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Plaza Colonia's performance.

Racing Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Racing Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Plaza Colonia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Racing Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Plaza Colonia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Silva J. (G) 20. Redin E. 2. Lorenzi M. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 22. Ramos J. 11. Pablo Garcia 23. Piriz F. (C) 3. Calleros Y. 30. Ocampo A. 9. Alex Bruno 7. Diogo Oliveira	25. Amade L. (G) 4. Cotugno G. 5. Monzon L. 17. Ferreira M. 16. Da Silva E. 10. Rodriguez L. (C) 15. Caceres M. 6. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 18. Ramirez S. 33. Sosa S. 11. Viudez P.
Substitutes
27. Barros C. 80. Carrizo L. 18. Cayetano A. 10. Ebere C. 5. Meite Y. 17. Otegui S. 6. Redin M. 44. Reyes G. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 8. Villalba D.	26. Bosca J. 3. Bueno G. 29. De Lima E. 21. Fonseca M. 42. Hernandez C. 12. Machado F. (G) 19. Pinela M. 30. Scarone A. 22. Severo A.
Coaches
Diaz S.	Chambian C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Sosa S. ↓, Severo A. ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Ramirez S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pablo Garcia ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
46', Ocampo A. ↓, Velazquez M. ↑,
50', Ferreira M. 🟨,
66', Viudez P. ↓, Bosca J. ↑,
66', Ramirez S. ↓, Fonseca M. ↑,
66', Redin E. ↓, Redin M. ↑,
66', Piriz F. ↓, Villalba D. ↑,
72', Velazquez M. 🟨,
73', Cotugno G. 🟨,
75', Alex Bruno ↓, Barros C. ↑,
80', Diogo Oliveira 🟨,
85', Fonseca M. 🟥,
88', Da Silva E. ↓, Bueno G. ↑,
90+2', Amade L. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 3 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plaza Colonia won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Racing could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Plaza Colonia won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 18:19 (average 1.6:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Plaza Colonia won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Boston River	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
07.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 WLTWT
- Racing Montevideo
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	Racing Montevideo - América de Cali	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.25	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:3 ✺
16.03.25	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
28.11.23	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	0:1
18.06.23	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	4:1
03.05.23	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1
05.12.19	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	3:2
20.07.19	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:2
01.06.19	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	4:1
23.11.17	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	1:2

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