Match Info

URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 26 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Racing Montevideo		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.75	2.9	5.25	Watch
	1.78	3.25	4.4
	1.8	3.45	4.3	Watch
	1.8	3.48	4.51	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.33
	1.77	3.51	4.54	Watch
	1.81	3.25	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.02)	3.31 ↑ (3.3)	4.56 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
51.7%

Draw
28%

River Plate Montevideo
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

28.1%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

26.8%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Montevideo's performance.

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and River Plate Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Racing Montevideo will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Amade L. (G) 4. Cotugno G. 5. Monzon L. 17. Ferreira M. (C) 34. Pereira A. 10. Rodriguez L. 15. Caceres M. 6. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 16. Da Silva E. 33. Sosa S. 77. Tomatis B.	1. Frascarelli D. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 2. Perez F. 3. Ramos N. 13. Almeida C. (C) 6. Cabrera R. 15. Jourdan E. 22. Alfonso M. 27. Lopez I. 18. Lopez I. 9. Correa T.
Substitutes
40. Atum A. 26. Bosca J. 42. Hernandez C. 27. Loprete L. 12. Machado F. (G) 19. Pinela M. 28. Ramirez S. 30. Scarone A. 22. Severo A. 11. Viudez P.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 14. De Leon F. 11. De Los Santos J. 28. Gonzalez L. 30. Inverso L. 20. Mederos S. 26. Orono G. 7. Quintana J. 23. Rodriguez F. 10. Vera A.
Coaches
Chambian C.	Lopez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Lopez I. 🟨,
35', Jourdan E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Correa T. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
57', Lopez I. ↓, De Los Santos J. ↑,
62', Jourdan E. ↓, Orono G. ↑,
67', Caceres M. ↓, Bosca J. ↑,
67', Da Silva E. ↓, Severo A. ↑,
75', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Quintana J. ↑,
75', Lopez I. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
75', Pereira A. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
84', Orono G. 🟨,
86', Espinosa Dovat T. N. 🟨,
89', Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↓, Pinela M. ↑,
90+8', Frascarelli D. 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 0, Sosa S. (Pen),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 7 and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Racing won 1.

Racing is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

River Plate is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

River Plate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Racing is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Racing to win the game is with odds 1.82.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Racing won 5 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 21:26 (average 1.1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Racing won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9:11 (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 26.09%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.25	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:3 ✺
16.03.25	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:0 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.02.25	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 WLWWW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.03.25	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
17.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Boston River	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:3 ✺
23.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Montevideo City Torque - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
01.12.24	Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:0
29.07.24	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:2
02.06.24	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	3:3
03.09.23	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0
19.02.23	Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
18.09.19	Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
23.02.19	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	4:1

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