Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 44

Date: 22 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Plymouth Argyle		Cambridge United

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	5
	1.68	3.75	4.75
	1.62	3.95	5.55
	1.71	3.83	5.2
	1.67	3.7	5
	1.67	3.9	4.95	Watch
	1.65	3.9	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.47)	3.83 ↓ (4.1)	5.04 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
56.6%

Draw
24.6%

Cambridge United
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

22.4%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

22%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Plymouth Argyle's form might have worsened.

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Plymouth Argyle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.4%	5.6%	0%

Plymouth Argyle - Cambridge United Predictions

Users Predictions: Plymouth Argyle will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Plymouth has the most likely position - 1 (56.86%), project points - 97, currently - 89, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), a good chance of promoted (90%), a good chance of win league (57%).

Cambridge has the most likely position - 21 (44.79%), project points - 45, currently - 40, a good chance of relegated (61%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 17, very big importance 96, match rating 57. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 0.

Recent matches Plymouth is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cambridge is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Plymouth have a series of guest games.

In this match Plymouth is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
18.04.23	Shrewsbury Town - Plymouth Argyle	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
10.04.23	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
07.04.23	Morecambe - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.04.23	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLWL
- Cambridge United
English League One
18.04.23	Cambridge United - Wycombe Wanderers	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Cambridge United - Peterborough United	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Bolton Wanderers - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Port Vale - Cambridge United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.1 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
10.12.22	Cambridge United - Plymouth Argyle	0:0
22.02.22	Cambridge United - Plymouth Argyle	2:0
17.08.21	Plymouth Argyle - Cambridge United	1:1
English League Two
22.02.20	Plymouth Argyle - Cambridge United	0:0
07.12.19	Cambridge United - Plymouth Argyle	1:0
04.02.17	Cambridge United - Plymouth Argyle	0:1
10.09.16	Plymouth Argyle - Cambridge United	2:1

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