Match Info

Division 1 - Round 18

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Polonii (Warsaw)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 9
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Polonia Warsaw		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	3.5	Watch
	1.85	3.65	3.7	Watch
	1.88	3.67	4.08
	1.86	3.79	3.71	Watch
	1.79	3.6	3.81
	1.8	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.86)	3.67 ↓ (3.79)	3.8 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Warsaw
50.4%

Draw
25.2%

Pogoń Siedlce
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

24.6%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

23.7%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Pogoń Siedlce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia (votes: 2 - 50%). Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 2 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Polonia Warsaw will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Kuchta M. (C) 20. Brasido D. 3. Salihu H. 30. Cisse S. 97. Janasik P. 16. Poczobut B. 7. Vega D. 26. Gnaase D. 19. Vasin N. 17. Dadok R. 9. Zjawinski L.	57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 4. Misiak P. 3. Dembek B. 6. Flis M. 26. Kolodziejski M. 10. Drag M. 31. Dzieciol E. 95. Zielonka N. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 11. Famulak M. 56. Demianiuk C.
Substitutes
10. Bajdur M. 77. Buksa A. 99. Durmus I. 5. Hoxhallari E. 21. Kapusta A. 44. Piotrowski B. 1. Sandach A. (G) 23. Skrabb S. 4. Szur P.	19. Kozlowski O. 29. Niezgoda J. 41. Pakulski D. 17. Saganowski F. 21. Stypulkowski S. 99. Swierczewski B. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 27. Zbrog J.
Coaches
Pawlak M.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Demianiuk C. ↓, Zbrog J. ↑,
45', 1 - 0, Zjawinski L. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Gnaase D. ⚽, Dadok R. (A),
67', Zielonka N. ↓, Niezgoda J. ↑,
68', Dzieciol E. ↓, Pakulski D. ↑,
68', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Kozlowski O. ↑,
74', Dadok R. ↓, Durmus I. ↑,
74', Vasin N. ↓, Piotrowski B. ↑,
83', Poczobut B. ↓, Skrabb S. ↑,
83', Salihu H. ↓, Szur P. ↑,
84', Zjawinski L. ↓, Buksa A. ↑,
88', Dembek B. ↓, Stypulkowski S. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 3.

Polonia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pogoń Siedlce has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Polonia is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Polonia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
23.11.25	Polonia Warsaw - Odra Opole	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Wisła Kraków - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Górnik Łęczna - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Polonia Warsaw - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Chrobry Głogów - Polonia Warsaw	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WWWWL
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
23.11.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Wisła Kraków	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Stal Rzeszów - Pogoń Siedlce	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Pogoń Siedlce - ŁKS Łódź	3:1 ✺
17.10.25	Miedź Legnica - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
20.07.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	1:1
09.04.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1
22.09.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	2:4
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1
27.01.24	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	0:2
Polish Division 2
13.11.22	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	0:1
23.07.22	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	2:1

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