Match Info

Division 1 - Round 31

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Polonii (Warsaw)

Referee: Rozycki A. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Polonia Warsaw		Stal Stalowa Wola

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	4.2
	1.73	3.6	4
	1.77	3.8	4.1	Watch
	1.73	3.75	3.95
	1.75	3.84	4.31	Watch
	1.83	3.4	3.9
	1.71	3.72	4.36
	1.77	3.8	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.77)	3.69 ↓ (3.91)	4.12 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Warsaw
52.7%

Draw
25%

Stal Stalowa Wola
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

24%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

23.1%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Stal Stalowa Wola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Stalowa Wola than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Polonia Warsaw - Stal Stalowa Wola Predictions

Users Predictions: Polonia Warsaw will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Polonia Warsaw will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Kuchta M. (C) 24. Terpilowski E. 4. Szur P. 26. Kolodziejski M. 5. Hoxhallari E. 55. Poczobut B. 15. Vega D. 8. Wojciechowski O. 16. Koton K. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 9. Zjawinski L.	12. Piekutowski M. (G) 55. Oko D. 22. Banach J. (C) 5. Mehremic A. 19. Niepsuj D. 30. Wojtkowski K. 10. Walski M. 26. Zaucha P. 7. Ibe-Torti K. 23. Svec J. 11. Strozik S.
Substitutes
10. Bajdur M. 1. Brudnicki M. (G) 30. Cisse S. 2. Grudniewski M. 21. Kapusta A. 7. Kluska M. 22. Olszewski P. 90. Spiewak K. 19. Vasin N.	77. Bida B. 6. Gvozdenovic B. 39. Jonathan Junior 2. Kukulowicz B. 21. Mydlarz M. 29. Ruszel M. 33. Smylek M. (G) 8. Thiago 24. Urban D.
Coaches
Pawlak M.	Pluska M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
11', 1 - 0, Zjawinski L. (Pen),
19', Hoxhallari E. 🟨,
24', 1 - 1, Zaucha P. ⚽, Ibe-Torti K. (A),
25', Poczobut B. 🟨,
26', 1 - 2, Oko D. ⚽, Mehremic A. (A),
30', Predenkiewicz M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 3, Ibe-Torti K. ⚽, Zaucha P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hoxhallari E. ↓, Olszewski P. ↑,
62', Wojtkowski K. 🟨,
63', 🟨,
67', Wojtkowski K. ↓, Thiago ↑,
70', Wojciechowski O. ↓, Vasin N. ↑,
78', Koton K. ↓, Bajdur M. ↑,
78', Predenkiewicz M. ↓, Grudniewski M. ↑,
80', Svec J. ↓, Mydlarz M. ↑,
80', Ibe-Torti K. ↓, Bida B. ↑,
90+3', Mehremic A. 🟥,
90+3', 2 - 3, Zjawinski L. (Pen),
90+4', Strozik S. ↓, Gvozdenovic B. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Polonia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stal Stalowa Wola is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Stal Stalowa Wola may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Polonia is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Polonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
26.04.25	GKS Tychy - Polonia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Polonia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	0:0 ✺
14.04.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Polonia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
09.04.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Odra Opole - Polonia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TTWWW
- FC Stal Stalowa Wola
Polish Division 1
25.04.25	Stal Stalowa Wola - ŁKS Łódź	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Stalowa Wola	2:2 ✺
13.04.25	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Stalowa Wola	1:3 ✺
09.04.25	Stal Stalowa Wola - GKS Tychy	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Wisła Płock - Stal Stalowa Wola	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
27.10.24	Stal Stalowa Wola - Polonia Warsaw	1:1
Polish Division 2
05.03.17	Stal Stalowa Wola - Polonia Warsaw	0:1
13.08.16	Polonia Warsaw - Stal Stalowa Wola	2:0

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