Match Info

Date: 12 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Ciudad Deportiva (Villarreal)

Referee: Frances R. (Esp)


	Villarreal B		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.9
	2.25	3.2	3.2
	2.28	3.3	2.95
	2.32	3.44	3.21
				Watch
	2.29	3.28	3.13	Watch
	2.32	3.35	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.22)	3.3 (3.3)	3.08 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal B
41.2%

Draw
28.4%

Ponferradina
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.4%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

28.2%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.4%	21.1%	10.5%

Villarreal B - Ponferradina Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Villarreal B will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal B: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 11 and 12).

Villarreal B has the most likely position - 20 (7.27%), has project points - 51, has currently - 12, has a chance of relegated (28%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (7.05%), has project points - 52, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (27%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 36, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Villarreal B will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal B
Spanish LaLiga2
07.10.22	Sporting de Gijón - Villarreal B	3:1 ✺
01.10.22	Villarreal B - Burgos	0:0 ✺
24.09.22	Málaga - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1 ✺
10.09.22	Levante - Villarreal B	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTTWL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
08.10.22	Ponferradina - Granada	0:0 ✺
02.10.22	Deportivo Alavés - Ponferradina	3:1 ✺
24.09.22	Ponferradina - Tenerife	2:2 ✺
18.09.22	Albacete Balompié - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
11.09.22	Ponferradina - Zaragoza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLTWL

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