Match Info

Serie B - Round 14

Date: 22 June 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4


	Ponte Preta		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.25	1.96	Watch
	3.80	3.20	1.93
	4.25	3.2	1.88	Watch
	4.77	3.3	1.95
	4.19	3.32	1.91	Watch
	3.75	3.10	2.00
	4.5	3.14	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (4.36)	3.22 ↑ (3.18)	1.93 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
22.5%

Draw
29.1%

Grêmio Novorizontino
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

29.4%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

28.6%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	10.5%	84.2%

Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio Novorizontino will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Grêmio Novorizontino will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 22. Thalys 3. Lucas Cunha 44. Marcio Silva 14. Danilo Barcelos (C) 5. Rodrigo Souza 8. Andre Lima 26. Baianinho 10. Elvis 32. Kevyson 9. Willian Pottker	93. Jordi (G) 20. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 15. Tavinho 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
21. Brandao 18. David da Hora 4. Diego M. L. 13. Diego Porfirio 7. Diego Tavares 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 19. Jonathan Cafu 16. Leo Gomes 2. Lucas Justen 90. Rodriguinho 38. Tarik	9. Carlao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 77. Helio Borges 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 7. Ronald Barcellos
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Tavinho 🟨,
17', Marcio Silva 🟥,
24', Andre Lima 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Robson ⚽,
45+4', Castrillon N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Baianinho ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
46', Andre Lima ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
46', Rodrigo Souza ↓, Diego M. L. ↑,
46', Castrillon N. ↓, Juninho ↑,
46', Tavinho ↓, Ivan Alvarino ↑,
56', Elvis ↓, David da Hora ↑,
59', 0 - 2, Robson ⚽, Maykon Jesus (A),
67', Willian Pottker ↓, Gustavo Telles ↑,
70', Gabriel Bahia 🟨,
73', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
74', Enderson Moreira 🟨,
74', Marcio Zanardi 🟨,
80', Romulo ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
82', Reidiney ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 2.

Ponte Preta has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Novorizontino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Novorizontino is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Andre Lima (Inactive) Bryan Borges (Inactive) Palacios S. (Red Card)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Dantas (Inactive) Lora J. (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Paulo Henrique (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Luis Phelipe (Inactive) Marcio Silva (Inactive) Murilo (Injury) Rodrigo Souza (Muscle Injury) Saravia Salvia R. A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Carlinhos (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.1:0.6).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
14.06.26	Juventude - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
09.06.26	Ponte Preta - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
01.06.26	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
24.05.26	CRB Maceio - Ponte Preta	4:2 ✺
18.05.26	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
10.06.26	Goiás - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:4 ✺
31.05.26	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
27.05.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.01.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ponte Preta	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ponte Preta	2:1
15.06.24	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.24	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
27.10.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ponte Preta	2:0
02.07.23	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
08.04.23	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 penalties

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