Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Ponte Preta		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	8.5	4.75	1.3	Watch
	9	4.8	1.34
	9.4	4.85	1.3	Watch
	9.77	5.16	1.31
	9.73	5.35	1.29	Watch
	9	4.6	1.3
	10	4.7	1.27
	10	4.75	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.43 ↑ (8.67)	4.87 ↑ (4.6)	1.31 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
9.8%

Draw
19.1%

São Paulo
71.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.6%

20%

69.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.1%

19.1%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ponte Preta - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Ponte Preta (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 50%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (C) 4. Diego M. L. 3. Lucas Cunha 33. David Braz 28. Pacheco 7. Diego Tavares 5. Rodrigo Souza 38. Kevyson 27. Juan Rodrigues 77. Bryan Borges 11. Luis Phelipe	23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 94. Danielzinho 29. Pablo Maia 8. Marcos Antonio 7. Lucas Moura 9. Jonathan Calleri 10. Luciano
Substitutes
35. Gustavo Telles 20. Jean Carlos 99. Joao Damiao 2. Julio 70. Kaio Ganga 15. Machado R. 17. Miguel Morais 8. Mora D. 37. Nikolas Francisco 80. Pedrinho 18. Rabello 30. Thiago Coelho (G)	34. dos Santos P. 32. Ferraresi N. 48. Ferreira D. 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 42. Maik 4. Matheus Doria 46. Pedro Ferreira 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell 50. Young (G)
Coaches
Fernandes M.	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Lucas Ramon ⚽,
45', Luciano 🟨,
45+2', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 0 - 2, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Sabino (A),
52', 1 - 2, Bryan Borges ⚽, Diego Tavares (A),
58', Diaz E. 🟨,
60', Luis Phelipe ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
73', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
73', Luciano ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
74', Diego M. L. 🟨,
76', Diego M. L. ↓, Julio ↑,
76', Rodrigo Souza ↓, Machado R. ↑,
83', Lucas Moura ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
85', Kevyson ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
85', David Braz ↓, Miguel Morais ↑,
90+1', Marcos Antonio ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
90+1', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Tapia G. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A2 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Ponte Preta is Relegated to Paulista A2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 3.

Ponte Preta has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

São Paulo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ponte Preta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of home games.

In this match, São Paulo is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Inactive) Jonathan Cafu (Inactive) Lucas Justen (Inactive) Tarik (Red Card)

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Cristiano (Inactive) Diego M. L. (Inactive) Joao Gabriel (Injury) Saimon (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Bobadilla D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Portuguesa - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Ponte Preta - EC Noroeste	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	São Paulo - EC Primavera	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	1:2
10.02.24	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	2:0
13.02.22	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2
01.03.20	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	2:1
09.02.19	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.09.17	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	2:2
04.06.17	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:0

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