Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 22

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Perugia		Gubbio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.08	3	3.55
	2.09	2.87	3.86	Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.5
	2.04	2.85	3.84	Watch
	2.05	2.9	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.25)	2.9 ↓ (3.46)	3.75 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
44.5%

Draw
31.3%

Gubbio
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.6%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

25.4%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gubbio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gubbio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Perugia - Gubbio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 32. Megelaitis L. 31. Tozzuolo A. 28. Riccardi D. 15. Dell'Orco C. 16. Bartolomei P. 6. Giunti G. 20. Tumbarello G. 77. Manzari G. 11. Bacchin L. 90. Nepi A.	12. Krapikas T. (G) 23. Bruscagin M. 15. Signorini A. 5. Di Bitonto A. 34. Zallu F. 21. Carraro F. 8. Rosaia G. 40. Costa G. 44. Hraiech S. 19. La Mantia A. 9. Tommasini C.
Substitutes
5. Angella G. 19. Dottori C. 30. Giardino C. 4. Joselito 23. Lisi F. 10. Matos 9. Montevago D. 12. Moro L. (G) 18. Perugini M. 71. Rondolini P. 13. Stramaccioni D. 17. Terrnava D. 24. Torrasi E. 22. Vinti L. (G)	1. Bagnolini N. (G) 4. Baroncelli L. 78. Conti V. 10. Di Massimo A. 82. Djankpata H. 17. Fazzi N. 73. Ghirardello T. 77. Minta A. 29. Murru N. 80. Niang O. 27. Podda L. 3. Tentardini A. 56. Tomasella M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Megelaitis L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Zallu F. ↓, Di Massimo A. ↑,
55', Djankpata H. ↓, Murru N. ↑,
64', Nepi A. ↓, Montevago D. ↑,
65', Giunti G. ↓, Joselito ↑,
70', 0 - 1, La Mantia A. ⚽,
75', Signorini A. ↓, Fazzi N. ↑,
76', Tumbarello G. ↓, Lisi F. ↑,
87', Hraiech S. ↓, Niang O. ↑,
87', Tommasini C. ↓, Baroncelli L. ↑,
88', Dell'Orco C. ↓, Matos ↑,
90+7', Costa G. 🟨,
90+13', Tozzuolo A. 🟨,
90+13', Di Bitonto A. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 2.

Perugia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gubbio's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gubbio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Perugia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Perugia won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13
17	Gubbio	9	2	1	6	10:18	-8	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
11.01.26	Perugia - Bra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Perugia	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Perugia - Forlì	4:0 ✺
13.12.25	Campobasso - Perugia	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Perugia - Ternana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWLL
- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
11.01.26	Sambenedettese - Gubbio	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Pineto - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Gubbio - Sassari Torres	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Pianese - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gubbio - Livorno	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
06.09.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:1
20.01.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:0
15.09.24	Perugia - Gubbio	1:1
17.03.24	Gubbio - Perugia	0:1
12.11.23	Perugia - Gubbio	1:0
17.03.21	Gubbio - Perugia	3:2
21.11.20	Perugia - Gubbio	0:0

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