Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 22

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ettore Mannucci (Pontedera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Pontedera		Pineto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.82	3.1	2.42
	2.78	3.08	2.49	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.45
	2.71	3.02	2.43	Watch
	2.71	3.2	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 (2.74)	3.04 ↓ (3.54)	2.46 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontedera
33.1%

Draw
29.9%

Pineto
37%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.6%

26%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

24.9%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Pineto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pineto than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pineto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Pontedera - Pineto Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Pineto will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pineto: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pineto will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Biagini V. (G) 23. Cerretti C. 94. Piana L. 27. Mbambi J. 18. Paolieri L. 8. Faggi F. 80. Caponi A. 21. Perretta G. 13. Scaccabarozzi J. 11. Ianesi S. 45. Yeboah P.	22. Tonti A. (G) 4. Postiglione N. 52. Frare D. 55. Capomaggio T. 16. Gagliardi L. 8. Germinario G. 21. Lombardi L. 99. Pellegrino A. 11. Borsoi M. 9. D'Andrea F. 24. Vigliotti G.
Substitutes
24. Bassanini R. 33. Battimelli G. 32. Beghetto L. 2. Giacomelli R. 6. Gueye O. 14. Manfredonia M. 7. Migliardi F. 25. Nabian H. 20. Pietrelli R. 19. Pretato M. 30. Strada N. (G) 1. Vannucchi T. (G) 17. Vitali P. 26. Wagner G.	6. Amadio S. 77. Boccacci F. 79. Di Lazzaro F. 40. Falo A. 1. Marone F. (G) 7. Marrancone A. 32. Mastropietro F. 68. Menna T. 28. Nebuloso G. 39. Sabatelli A. 25. Saccomanni G. 5. Schirone L. 23. Serbouti A. 18. Viero F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Cerretti C. ⚽,
29', D'Andrea F. 🟨,
41', Yeboah P. 🟨,
44', Caponi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Germinario G. ↓, Schirone L. ↑,
46', Capomaggio T. ↓, Marrancone A. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Marrancone A. ⚽,
70', Ianesi S. ↓, Vitali P. ↑,
70', Yeboah P. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
77', Gagliardi L. ↓, Serbouti A. ↑,
79', Faggi F. ↓, Manfredonia M. ↑,
86', Scaccabarozzi J. ↓, Wagner G. ↑,
90', Manfredonia M. 🟨,
90+3', Pellegrino A. ↓, Mastropietro F. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals)).

Pontedera has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pineto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.6:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontedera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 2.5:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Pineto	10	2	5	3	8:11	-3	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
11.01.26	Arezzo - Pontedera	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Pontedera - Sassari Torres	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Livorno - Pontedera	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Pontedera - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Ravenna - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTTL
- ASD Pineto Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
11.01.26	Pineto - Guidonia Montecelio	3:3 ✺
03.01.26	Vis Pesaro - Pineto	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Pineto - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
15.12.25	Arezzo - Pineto	3:3 ✺
07.12.25	Sassari Torres - Pineto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
07.09.25	Pineto - Pontedera	1:1
02.02.25	Pontedera - Pineto	3:2
26.09.24	Pineto - Pontedera	1:1
13.02.24	Pontedera - Pineto	2:3
08.10.23	Pineto - Pontedera	4:1

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