Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 11

Date: 27 October 2025, Monday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, RaiPlay, RAI Sport, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
World	Onefootball


	Perugia		Livorno

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.15
	2.06	3.31	3.41
	1.96	3.50	3.56	Watch
	2.16	3.08	3.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.93)	3.27 ↓ (3.3)	3.34 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
44.2%

Draw
28.1%

Livorno
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

27.7%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Livorno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Perugia - Livorno Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Livorno will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Livorno (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 31. Tozzuolo A. 28. Riccardi D. 5. Angella G. 98. Giraudo F. 32. Megelaitis L. 16. Bartolomei P. 6. Giunti G. 77. Manzari G. 9. Montevago D. 7. Kanoute M.	12. Seghetti J. (G) 77. Mawete J. C. 26. Noce M. 6. Monaco S. 19. Antoni E. 28. Hamlili Z. 95. Marchesi F. 14. Biondi K. 55. Peralta D. 70. Cioffi A. 9. Dionisi F.
Substitutes
11. Bacchin L. 21. Broh J. 26. Calapai L. 15. Dell'Orco C. 19. Dottori C. 30. Giardino C. 4. Joselito 12. Moro L. (G) 99. Nwanege K. 29. Ogunseye R. 17. Terrnava D. 24. Torrasi E. 20. Tumbarello G. 22. Vinti L. (G) 3. Yabre M.	49. Baldi L. 44. Bonassi L. 16. Calvosa A. 22. Ciobanu N. D. (G) 13. Di Carmine S. 2. Gentile D. 15. Ghezzi S. 20. Haveri K. 11. Malva A. 23. Marinari J. 5. Nwachukwu S. J. 4. Odjer M. 17. Panaioli L. 18. Panattoni M. 1. Tani F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Hamlili Z. 🟨,
38', Riccardi D. 🟨,
45+2', Marchesi F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Marchesi F. ↓, Panaioli L. ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Kanoute M. ⚽,
63', Hamlili Z. ↓, Ghezzi S. ↑,
63', Biondi K. ↓, Odjer M. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Montevago D. ⚽,
74', Dionisi F. ↓, Panattoni M. ↑,
75', Kanoute M. ↓, Ogunseye R. ↑,
80', Manzari G. ↓, Calapai L. ↑,
83', Montevago D. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
84', Mawete J. C. ↓, Gentile D. ↑,
85', Calapai L. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 4.

Perugia is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Livorno has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Perugia could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Livorno will win today's game, with odds of 3.34.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:10. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Perugia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
19.10.25	Pineto - Perugia	3:0 ✺
11.10.25	Perugia - Rimini	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Carpi - Perugia	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Perugia - Pianese	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Perugia - Sambenedettese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
18.10.25	Livorno - Sambenedettese	2:1 ✺
11.10.25	Pineto - Livorno	3:0 ✺
03.10.25	Pianese - Livorno	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Livorno - Campobasso	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Bra - Livorno	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.01.20	Perugia - Livorno	1:0
31.08.19	Livorno - Perugia	0:1
30.03.19	Perugia - Livorno	3:1
04.11.18	Livorno - Perugia	2:3
07.05.16	Livorno - Perugia	1:1
18.12.15	Perugia - Livorno	4:1
25.04.15	Perugia - Livorno	1:1

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