Match Info

WALES: CYMRU PREMIER - ROUND 18

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday


	Pontypridd United		Caernarfon Town

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.3
	2.65	3.6	2.35	Watch
	2.69	3.91	2.35
	2.69	3.91	2.33
	2.6	3.5	2.25
	2.7	3.6	2.31
	2.65	3.6	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.63)	3.66 ↓ (3.75)	2.32 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
35%

Draw
25.2%

Caernarfon Town
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

24.4%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

23.9%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Caernarfon Town aligns with the current prediction.

Pontypridd United - Caernarfon Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 9. Ahmun B. 2. Cummings L. 29. Green C. (C) 17. Hunt J. 20. Jones O. 6. Knott J. 10. Lewis K. 5. Margetson B. 8. Shephard C. 16. Wright J.	41. Thomas H. (G) 7. Bradley S. 2. Cartwright I. 19. Clarke Z. 9. Davies A. 6. Donohue D. 17. Maher B. 10. Thomas D. (C) 4. Williams G. 14. Williams M. 18. Wynne B.
Substitutes
28. Coleman L. 30. Hutson C. 1. Morris A. (G) 22. Pritchard O. 14. Rees K. 3. Vaughan E.	8. Gosset D. 34. Griffith C. 20. Lloyd L. 21. Mooney P. 31. Pritchard T.
Coaches
Stokes A.	Davies R.

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Pontypridd has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Caernarfon is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Caernarfon will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pontypridd won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Pontypridd won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru Premier
28.11.23	Newtown - Pontypridd United	3:1 ✺
19.11.23	Pontypridd United - Colwyn Bay	0:3 ✺
04.11.23	Bala Town - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
28.10.23	Pontypridd United - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:3 ✺
21.10.23	Pontypridd United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTLL
- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
28.11.23	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
19.11.23	Caernarfon Town - Barry Town United	2:3 ✺
04.11.23	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	2:4 ✺
27.10.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	6:1 ✺
21.10.23	Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
23.09.23	Caernarfon Town - Pontypridd United	1:0
15.04.23	Caernarfon Town - Pontypridd United	1:2
11.03.23	Pontypridd United - Caernarfon Town	1:0
01.10.22	Pontypridd United - Caernarfon Town	3:1
20.08.22	Caernarfon Town - Pontypridd United	2:0

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