Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 30

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Accrington Stanley

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.1
	1.88	3.57	4.35
				Watch
	1.95	3.3	4
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.73)	3.42 ↓ (3.59)	4.15 ↓ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
49.8%

Draw
27.5%

Accrington Stanley
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

26%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Port Vale, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

Port Vale - Accrington Stanley Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Accrington will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Port Vale: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Amos B. (G) 24. Kyle John 5. Hall C. 6. Smith N. 20. Sang T. 18. Croasdale R. 45. Harper R. 8. Garrity B. (C) 33. Headley J. 9. Stockley J. 19. Tolaj L.	13. Francis Crellin W. (G) 24. Aljofree S. 5. Rawson F. 14. Ward B. 2. Love D. 6. Coyle L. 8. Woods B. 16. Batty J. 45. Hunter A. 7. Whalley S. (C) 9. Mooney K.
Substitutes
40. Broome N. (G) 7. Byers G. 10. Chislett E. 11. Curtis R. 32. Hackford A. 4. Heneghan B. 37. Umolu J.	20. Brown C. 28. Conneely S. 10. Henderson A. 1. Kelly M. (G) 17. Matthews D. 38. O'Brien C. 23. Walton T.
Coaches
Moore D.	Doolan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Stockley J. ⚽, Sang T. (A),
13', Sang T. 🟥,
22', Batty J. 🟨,
27', Amos B. 🟨,
44', Harper R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mooney K. ↓, Walton T. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Walton T. ⚽,
56', 2 - 1, Tolaj L. ⚽, Garrity B. (A),
58', Rawson F. ↓, Matthews D. ↑,
68', Harper R. ↓, Byers G. ↑,
69', Stockley J. 🟨,
72', Love D. 🟨,
79', Aljofree S. ↓, Brown C. ↑,
80', Stockley J. ↓, Umolu J. ↑,
86', Batty J. ↓, O'Brien C. ↑,
89', Tolaj L. ↓, Heneghan B. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Accrington could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Port Vale is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:14 (average 1.6:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:4 (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League Two
25.01.25	Chesterfield - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Port Vale - Newport County	3:2 ✺
04.01.25	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	1:2 ✺
01.01.25	Port Vale - Cheltenham Town	0:0 ✺
29.12.24	Grimsby Town - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWWTL
- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
28.01.25	Accrington Stanley - Cheltenham Town	0:0 ✺
25.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Accrington Stanley	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Accrington Stanley - Notts County	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Liverpool - Accrington Stanley	4:0 ✺
English League Two
04.01.25	Colchester United - Accrington Stanley	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
21.09.24	Accrington Stanley - Port Vale	2:2
English League One
07.04.23	Accrington Stanley - Port Vale	3:0
07.02.23	Port Vale - Accrington Stanley	1:1
English FA Cup
06.11.21	Port Vale - Accrington Stanley	5:1
English League Two
20.01.18	Accrington Stanley - Port Vale	3:2
26.09.17	Port Vale - Accrington Stanley	1:2
02.02.13	Port Vale - Accrington Stanley	3:0

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