Match Info

League Two - Round 38

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Wham Stadium (Accrington)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Accrington Stanley		Notts County

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.25	1.81	Watch
	4.15	3.35	1.88	Watch
	4.39	3.42	1.9
	3.86	3.27	1.98	Watch
	4	3.1	1.91
	4.27	3.3	1.88	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.3)	3.28 ↑ (3.2)	1.93 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Accrington Stanley
23.2%

Draw
28.4%

Notts County
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

28.6%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

28.1%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Accrington Stanley - Notts County Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Notts County will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Notts County: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Notts County (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Accrington (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Accrington (votes: 1 - 50%). Notts County (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Wright O. (G) 17. Matthews D. 5. Rawson F. 3. Sass F. 38. O'Brien C. 24. Butterfield L. 4. Grant C. 20. Brown C. 39. Woods J. 7. Whalley S. (C) 8. Madden P.	31. Belshaw J. (G) 28. Macari L. 3. McDonald R. 4. Bedeau J. 25. Tsaroulla N. 27. Tangen H. 18. Palmer M. (C) 47. Bennetts K. 14. Iorpenda T. 10. Jones J. 11. Grant C.
Substitutes
27. Abimbola D. 28. Conneely S. 26. Hall C. 1. Kelly M. (G) 22. Martin D. 11. Sinclair I. 25. Smith J.	23. Browne L. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 26. Hall T. 53. Iwunze H. 29. Jatta A. 17. Kouhyar Q. 12. Ness L.
Coaches
Doolan J.	Paterson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Jones J. ⚽, Tangen H. (A),
23', Tsaroulla N. 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Bennetts K. ⚽, Grant C. (A),
38', Grant C. ↓, Conneely S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sass F. ↓, Martin D. ↑,
68', 0 - 3, Grant C. ⚽,
70', Bennetts K. ↓, Hall T. ↑,
70', Tangen H. ↓, Jatta A. ↑,
73', Madden P. ↓, Sinclair I. ↑,
73', Whalley S. ↓, Abimbola D. ↑,
77', Tsaroulla N. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
77', Bedeau J. ↓, Ness L. ↑,
77', Palmer M. ↓, Browne L. ↑,
83', 0 - 4, Hall T. ⚽, Jatta A. (A),
88', Martin D. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 1.

Accrington is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Notts County has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Notts County is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Accrington: Coyle L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Notts County: Bedeau J. (Yellow Cards) Dennis M. (Yellow Cards) Luker J. (Inactive) Norburn O. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Accrington: Mooney K. (Inactive) Sinclair I. (Inactive) Walton T. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Accrington won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Accrington: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Accrington	10	2	5	3	13:14	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Accrington Stanley - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 27.76%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Notts County - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.62%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
14.03.26	Barrow - Accrington Stanley	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Accrington Stanley - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Bromley - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Accrington Stanley - Barnet	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Accrington Stanley - Shrewsbury Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TTLLL
- Notts County
English League Two
14.03.26	Notts County - Chesterfield	2:3 ✺
07.03.26	Walsall - Notts County	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Notts County - Grimsby Town	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Notts County - Tranmere Rovers	5:0 ✺
17.02.26	Shrewsbury Town - Notts County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.26	Notts County - Accrington Stanley	0:1
18.01.25	Accrington Stanley - Notts County	0:3
07.09.24	Notts County - Accrington Stanley	2:0
16.03.24	Accrington Stanley - Notts County	2:2
02.09.23	Notts County - Accrington Stanley	3:1
02.04.18	Accrington Stanley - Notts County	1:0
25.08.17	Notts County - Accrington Stanley	2:2

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