The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Port Vale 31.8%
Draw 28.6%
Chesterfield 39.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
34.7%
27.6%
37.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.5%
27.5%
38%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
Port Vale - Chesterfield Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
20. Marosi M. (G) 25. Humphreys C. 4. Moon J. 5. Hall C. 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 10. Dempsey K. 33. Hall G. 8. Garrity B. (C) 3. Headley J. 36. Watters M. 11. Hernandez O.
23. Boot R. (G) 33. Hutton R. 5. McFadzean K. (C) 6. Simpson J. 19. Gordon L. 20. McEachran G. 8. Stirk R. 24. Markanday D. 18. Marsh L. 31. Randall J. 10. Bonis L.
Substitutes
27. Asamoah M. 7. Byers G. 24. Figueroa K. 2. Kyle John 14. Lynch O. 1. Smith J. (G) 38. Walters R.
27. Dyer K. 26. Eccleston J. 28. Grigg W. 37. Koroma J. 7. Mandeville L. 4. Naylor T. 46. Pearce T.
Coaches
Brady J.
Cook P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Humphreys C. 🟨,
30', Lawrence-Gabriel J. 🟨,
33', Randall J. ↓, Koroma J. ↑,
45', 1 - 0, Hernandez O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Stirk R. 🟨,
59', Headley J. 🟨,
64', Gordon L. 🟨,
65', Watters M. ↓, Lynch O. ↑,
66', Hernandez O. ↓, Figueroa K. ↑,
69', Brady J. 🟨,
73', Hall G. ↓, Byers G. ↑,
73', Headley J. ↓, Kyle John ↑,
79', Dempsey K. ↓, Walters R. ↑,
79', Gordon L. ↓, Pearce T. ↑,
79', Stirk R. ↓, Mandeville L. ↑,
80', Marsh L. ↓, Dyer K. ↑,
84', Markanday D. ↓, Grigg W. ↑,
Preview
A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 22nd and 7th in the Promotion - League Two Playoffs - Semi - finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 3.
Port Vale has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Chesterfield shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Port Vale: Faal M.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for Chesterfield: Dickson W.
(Inactive)
Owolabi-Belewu M.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Port Vale: Craig M.
(Injury)
Simpson T.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Chesterfield: Hemming Z.
(Inactive)
Sotiriou R.
(Inactive).
In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Port Vale has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:22 (averaging 1.1:1.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Port Vale against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 8:7 goals (averaging 1.3:1.2 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
7
Chesterfield
13
5
4
4
23:17
6
19
23
Port Vale
11
3
3
5
6:12
-6
12
Outrights of English League Two for now
Chesterfield: 10.75% Port Vale: 4.89%
Last Results with these Odds
Port Vale - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.67%, but this team recently wins 26% of matches with these odds.
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Marosi M. (G) 
Humphreys C. 
Hernandez O. 
Gordon L. 
Stirk R. 
Bonis L. 
Figueroa K. 
Koroma J. 
Brady J. 
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