The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Port Vale 48.6%
Draw 26.6%
Swindon Town 24.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46.5%
26.3%
27.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48%
25.5%
26.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Port Vale - Swindon Town Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 20. Sang T. 4. Heneghan B. 5. Hall C. 27. Cover B. 7. Byers G. 8. Garrity B. (C) 24. Kyle John 19. Tolaj L. 32. Hackford A. 9. Stockley J.
1. Bycroft J. (G) 31. Minturn H. 5. Wright W. (C) 20. Freckleton M. 2. Sobowale T. 18. Kilkenny G. 7. Cotterill J. 27. Cox G. 22. Butterworth D. 21. Tshimanga K. 23. Drinan A.
Substitutes
13. Amos B. (G) 10. Chislett E. 18. Croasdale R. 11. Curtis R. 22. Debrah J. 17. Paton R. 26. Richards R.
12. Barden D. (G) 16. Cain J. 9. Glatzel P. 33. McGregor J. 11. McGurk S. 39. Mitchell D. 6. Ofoborh N.
Coaches
Moore D.
Kennedy M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', Minturn H. ↓, Ofoborh N. ↑,
59', Garrity B. 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Byers G. ⚽, Sang T. (A),
67', Butterworth D. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
70', Hackford A. ↓, Chislett E. ↑,
82', Drinan A. ↓, McGurk S. ↑,
82', Kilkenny G. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
85', Tolaj L. ↓, Croasdale R. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Cover B. ⚽,
87', Sang T. 🟨,
89', 2 - 1, Wright W. ⚽,
90', Byers G. 🟨,
90+4', Cotterill J. 🟨,
90+4', Stockley J. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,
90+5', Cover B. ↓, Debrah J. ↑,
Preview
This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 9 and 21).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 2.
Port Vale is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Swindon is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Port Vale will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 19 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 20-31.
Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11-13.
Watch
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Ripley C. (G) 
Cover B. 
Byers G. 
Tolaj L. 
Sobowale T. 
Cotterill J. 
Glatzel P. 
Ofoborh N. 
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