Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)

Referee: Sanha F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Portimonense		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.45
	2.7	3	2.35
	2.85	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.91	3.1	2.51	Watch
	2.88	3	2.38
	2.89	3.18	2.47	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.7)	3.08 ↓ (3.28)	2.45 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
32.5%

Draw
29.9%

Alverca
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

28.4%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

28.8%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	30.8%	69.2%

Portimonense - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 43. Alemao 13. Kobayashi Y. 88. Fernandes T. 29. Ruan 8. Geovane 81. Ferreira D. 4. Relvas F. 11. Paulo V. (C) 9. Monteiro T. 10. Chico Banza	98. Joao Bravim (G) 22. David Bruno 6. Velazquez S. (C) 5. Varela F. 36. Thauan Lara 16. Pires M. 40. Ageu E. 88. Martins D. 7. Brenner Lucas 9. Carter A. 10. Andrezinho
Substitutes
99. Benedict E. 42. Diaby M. 28. Duran C. 19. John K. 30. Kim Yong-Hak 5. Mendes C. 32. Nakamura K. (G) 17. Silva do Nascimento D. 24. Tony	3. Alysson 25. Dias R. 18. Eduardo W. 89. Lima J. 13. Paulo Eduardo 35. Pedro Bicalho 12. Reinaldo 74. Shinga K. 23. Silva P. (G)
Coaches
Pessoa R.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Pires M. 🟨,
45+1', Carter A. 🟨,
45+2', Geovane 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Velazquez S. ↓, Paulo Eduardo ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Chico Banza ⚽, Relvas F. (A),
57', Martins D. ↓, Pedro Bicalho ↑,
62', Geovane 🟨,
64', Monteiro T. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
65', Chico Banza 🟨,
70', Alemao 🟥,
71', Brenner Lucas ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
72', Chico Banza ↓, John K. ↑,
77', Pires M. ↓, Lima J. ↑,
77', Thauan Lara ↓, Reinaldo ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 7).

Portimonense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alverca is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Portimonense - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.59%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.24	Portimonense - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
15.12.24	Tondela - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
08.12.24	Paços de Ferreira - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
30.11.24	Portimonense - Chaves	1:2 ✺
23.11.24	Portimonense - Benfica B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLWLL
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 2
22.12.24	Paços de Ferreira - Alverca	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Alverca - Chaves	3:1 ✺
08.12.24	Oliveirense - Alverca	1:4 ✺
30.11.24	Alverca - Vizela	4:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Alverca - Rio Ave	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWWWL

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