Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 16

Date: 13 January 2023, Friday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)

Referee: Costa R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Ring
Portugal	Sport TV


	Portimonense		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.08	3.1	3.6
	2.03	3.3	3.65
	2.17	3.24	3.87
	2.15	3.1	3.5
	2.04	3.32	3.72	Watch
	2.21	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.14)	3.2 ↑ (3.19)	3.58 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
44.5%

Draw
29.3%

Santa Clara
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

29.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

25.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portimonense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	25.6%	5.1%

Portimonense - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Portimonense will win (votes: 27 - 69.2%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 2 - 5.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 25.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portimonense: 54.7% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 15).

Portimonense has the most likely position - 10 (9.4%), has project points - 43, has currently - 19, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 47, small importance 29, match rating 38. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 1.

Portimonense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Santa Clara has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Portimonense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Portimonense will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Portimonense: Carlinhos (Injury)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Domingos T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Portimonense: Junior W. (Injury)

There are questionable in Santa Clara: Anderson Carvalho (Injury) Rocha M. (Injury)

Last 18 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 4 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 15-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Portimonense won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
06.01.23	Benfica - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
28.12.22	Portimonense - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
14.12.22	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	0:3 ✺
27.11.22	Portimonense - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
19.11.22	Nacional - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
05.01.23	Santa Clara - Braga	0:4 ✺
29.12.22	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
16.12.22	Santa Clara - Arouca	1:2 ✺
08.12.22	Feirense - Santa Clara	4:3 ✺
29.11.22	Santa Clara - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.02.22	Santa Clara - Portimonense	1:1
17.09.21	Portimonense - Santa Clara	2:1
13.03.21	Santa Clara - Portimonense	2:0
01.11.20	Portimonense - Santa Clara	1:2
16.06.20	Santa Clara - Portimonense	1:1
04.11.19	Portimonense - Santa Clara	1:1
03.02.19	Santa Clara - Portimonense	2:1

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