Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 29

Date: 14 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)

Referee: Martins T. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Portimonense		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.55	3	2.8
	2.55	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.62	3.13	3.01
	2.62	3.13	3.01
	2.6	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.54	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.6	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.66)	3.11 ↓ (3.37)	2.91 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
36.9%

Draw
30.5%

Casa Pia
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

27.8%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

27.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.5%	59.1%	36.4%

Portimonense - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Portimonense will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 59.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Nakamura K. (G) 33. Igor Formiga 44. Pedrao (C) 43. Tornich 18. Costa G. 8. Fukui T. 11. Carlinhos 25. Lucas Ventura 10. Pereira H. 9. Monteiro T. 77. Varela H.	33. Batista R. (G) 3. Nunes J. 2. Tchamba D. 19. Zolotic N. 72. Larrazabal G. 8. Neto (C) 21. Segovia T. 5. Lelo L. 11. Soma Y. 30. Felippe 7. Moreira N.
Substitutes
19. Carrillo R. 85. Cassama M. 13. Dener 20. Estrela P. 27. Guga 23. Lee Ye-chan 70. Martins R. 14. Seck M. 12. Vinicius Silvestre (G)	12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 16. Beni 18. Geraldes A. 96. Justo S. 9. Lacximicant A. 10. Lameiras R. 68. Lucas Paes (G) 77. Tiago Dias 15. Varela F.
Coaches
Paulo Sergio	Goncalo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Monteiro T. ⚽, Carlinhos (A),
25', Tchamba D. 🟨,
26', 2 - 0, Tornich ⚽, Carlinhos (A),
34', 2 - 1, Soma Y. ⚽, Moreira N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Moreira N. 🟨,
58', Igor Formiga 🟨,
59', 2 - 2, Zolotic N. ⚽, Moreira N. (A),
60', Nakamura K. 🟨,
66', Moreira N. ↓, Lameiras R. ↑,
66', Segovia T. ↓, Beni ↑,
68', Igor Formiga ↓, Seck M. ↑,
68', Costa G. ↓, Guga ↑,
73', Pereira H. ↓, Martins R. ↑,
79', Felippe ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
79', Soma Y. ↓, Tiago Dias ↑,
82', Fukui T. ↓, Dener ↑,
82', Monteiro T. ↓, Cassama M. ↑,
87', Beni 🟨,
90+4', Beni 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 9).

Portimonense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Casa Pia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Brito R. (Muscle Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Portimonense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
07.04.24	Chaves - Portimonense	2:3 ✺
01.04.24	Portimonense - Braga	3:5 ✺
15.03.24	Estoril Praia - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
08.03.24	Portimonense - Porto	0:3 ✺
03.03.24	Portimonense - Vizela	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLLT
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
08.04.24	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	0:0 ✺
31.03.24	Vizela - Casa Pia	0:4 ✺
17.03.24	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:1 ✺
08.03.24	Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
03.03.24	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.12.23	Casa Pia - Portimonense	1:0
05.05.23	Casa Pia - Portimonense	1:1
28.12.22	Portimonense - Casa Pia	1:2

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