Match Info

USL League One

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Breese Stevens Field (Madison, WI)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Forward Madison		Portland Hearts of Pine

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.25	3.5
	1.9	3.25	3.8
	1.93	3.24	4.08
	1.96	3.27	4.02	Watch
	1.9	3.59	3.79	Watch
	1.9	3.25	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.37)	3.31 ↑ (3.11)	3.83 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forward Madison
48.2%

Draw
27.8%

Portland Hearts of Pine
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29.5%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

28.8%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forward Madison has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Forward Madison's performance.

Portland Hearts of Pine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portland Hearts of Pine might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Forward Madison than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Forward Madison that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portland Hearts of Pine could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Forward Madison - Portland Hearts of Pine Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Forward Madison (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Forward Madison (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Lapsley W. (G) 2. Chilaka M. 5. Mehl T. 16. Crull J. 25. Sousa F. 6. Murphy J. 21. Carrera J. (C) 3. Viader D. 8. Boyce D. 17. Gebhard D. 77. Brown N.	1. Morse H. (G) 17. Reilly M. 19. Wright S. 7. Vinberg S. 3. Messer N. 22. Varela W. 5. Lopez M. 6. Langlois P. (C) 10. Wright O. 77. Wada M. 14. Washington T.
Substitutes
24. Bartman N. 26. Binns R. 7. Dietrich J. 12. Finnerty O. (G) 19. Galindrez J. 11. Garcia C. 18. Graffin A. 70. Lucca Dourado	47. James N. 80. Kamara J. 12. Keegan J. 9. Liadi A. 50. Mohamed M. 23. Oladapo K. (G) 8. Poon-Angeron M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Boyce D. (Pen),
12', Langlois P. ↓, Poon-Angeron M. ↑,
35', 1 - 1, Messer N. ⚽, Wright O. (A),
38', Viader D. 🟨,
41', Lopez M. 🟨,
45+3', Varela W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopez M. ↓, Mohamed M. ↑,
56', Brown N. ↓, Garcia C. ↑,
56', Viader D. ↓, Galindrez J. ↑,
62', Washington T. ↓, Liadi A. ↑,
62', Reilly M. ↓, Kamara J. ↑,
67', Garcia C. 🟨,
68', Gebhard D. ↓, Bartman N. ↑,
69', Poon-Angeron M. 🟨,
72', Kamara J. 🟨,
76', Vinberg S. 🟨,
80', Varela W. ↓, James N. ↑,
85', Carrera J. ↓, Dietrich J. ↑,
85', Boyce D. ↓, Lucca Dourado ↑,
90+3', Wright O. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 9 and 11)

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Hearts of Pine may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Forward Madison might have a minor edge in this game.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forward Madison
USL League One
17.05.25	Westchester SC - Forward Madison	1:1 ✺
09.05.25	One Knoxville - Forward Madison	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Forward Madison - Union Omaha	0:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Forward Madison - Indy Eleven	0:4 ✺
USL League One
19.04.25	Forward Madison - Texoma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTTLT
- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
17.05.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Union Omaha - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - One Knoxville	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Hartford Athletic - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:0 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Rhode Island	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTTLL

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