Match Info

USL League One

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sarasota Paradise		Charlotte Independence

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	3.70	2.65
	2.18	3.55	2.55
	2.25	3.64	2.73
	2.26	3.81	2.74	Watch
	2.18	3.5	2.65
	2.28	4.14	2.71	Watch
	2.19	3.65	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.7)	3.71 ↑ (3.5)	2.65 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
41.2%

Draw
24.5%

Charlotte Independence
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

25.6%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

26.7%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarasota Paradise's performance.

Charlotte Independence has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Charlotte Independence might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarasota Paradise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlotte Independence than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Charlotte Independence could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarasota Paradise - Charlotte Independence Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (G) 3. Valentine R. 24. Kiingi K. 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 8. Walker A. (C) 28. Gall R. 16. Rodriguez A. 7. Bryant E. 17. Bolanos J. 46. Roed S.	28. Levy M. (G) 17. Dimick C. (C) 4. Coulibaly S. 5. Romero J. 3. Skinner J. 6. Fuchs J. 24. Amaya J. 10. Bakero J. 19. Martinez E. 9. Manzinga C. 26. Marou S.
Substitutes
23. Amedeka R. (G) 50. Brulinski D. 2. Burlew R. 10. Cence M. 19. McLaughlin G. 27. O'Dwyer C. 52. Sanchez K. 61. Spengler J. 32. Terzaghi E.	13. Guffroy M. 16. Lyons M. 11. Ortiz V. 22. Riascos K. 7. Saydee P. 29. Stefano Pinho 1. Tasouris G. (G)
Coaches
Elovaara M.	Jeffries M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Romero J. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Marou S. ⚽, Bakero J. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Roed S. ⚽, Bryant E. (A),
42', Roed S. 🟨,
45+2', Coulibaly S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Coulibaly S. ↓, Riascos K. ↑,
62', Manzinga C. ↓, Saydee P. ↑,
62', Martinez E. ↓, Ortiz V. ↑,
63', Bryant E. ↓, O'Dwyer C. ↑,
63', Roed S. ↓, Terzaghi E. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Bolanos J. ⚽, Terzaghi E. (A),
74', Gall R. 🟨,
74', Fuchs J. ↓, Stefano Pinho ↑,
77', Gall R. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
78', Ortiz V. 🟨,
82', Amaya J. ↓, Guffroy M. ↑,
86', Rosa A. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Sogaard A. 🟨,
89', 2 - 2, Marou S. ⚽, Ortiz V. (A),
90', Rodriguez A. ↓, Sanchez K. ↑,
90', Bolanos J. ↓, McLaughlin G. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 3, Stefano Pinho ⚽, Skinner J. (A),
90+5', Stefano Pinho 🟨,
90+8', Levy M. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 2nd in the Promotion - USL League One Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Charlotte Ind is Qualified for USL League One (Play Offs Quarter~finals).

Sarasota Paradise is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Charlotte Ind has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sarasota Paradise has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Charlotte Independ. ✔	29	18	6	5	67:42	25	60
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33

Last Results with these Odds

Sarasota Paradise - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.22%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Charlotte Independence - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 41.15%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
26.09.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Sarasota Paradise	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Greenville Triumph	6:0 ✺
12.09.26	Forward Madison - Sarasota Paradise	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Spokane Velocity	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	New York Cosmos - Sarasota Paradise	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WWTTW
- Charlotte Independence
USL League One
26.09.26	Charlotte Independence - Fort Wayne	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Richmond Kickers - Charlotte Independence	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Boise - Charlotte Independence	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Charlotte Independence - Westchester SC	5:4 ✺
05.09.26	Union Omaha - Charlotte Independence	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
15.08.26	Charlotte Independence - Sarasota Paradise	3:1

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